HCMC apartment prices continue to rise as supply hits 10-year low in H1

The apartment market in former Ho Chi Minh City continued to see rising prices since the total supply in the first six months of 2025 hit the lowest since 2015, according to real estate consultancy firm DKRA.

From July 1, 2025, HCMC was merged with Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau provinces to form the new HCMC.

DKRA Group’s Q2 report on the real estate market in former HCMC and surrounding areas showed that the primary apartment supply rose by 40% year-on-year, reaching approximately 20,583 units.

Former Binh Duong and former HCMC remained the leading markets, accounting for 79.6% of total primary supply.

New launches showed a clear recovery with over 10,000 apartments released to the market, 3.1 times higher than the same period last year. From Q2/2024 to Q2/2025, sales volumes increased 3.3 times year-on-year to 11,082 units.

Former HCMC recorded the highest primary selling price at up to VND493 million ($18,877) per square meter, with the lowest at VND38 million ($1,455). Former Ba Ria-Vung Tau followed, with prices ranging from VND37 million per sqm to VND115 million ($4,403).

Vo Hong Thang, chief investment officer at DKRA Group, said the residential real estate market in former HCMC and nearby areas continued to show positive signs. Most transactions focused on projects with completed infrastructure and legal clearance, typically developed by reputable investors. The average primary price saw a slight increase compared to the same period in 2024.

“Market demand showed clear changes amid the administrative boundary merger plans. Primary selling prices rose 3-8% quarter-over-quarter, especially in the mid- to high-end segments. Secondary market liquidity also continued to recover, with resale prices increasing by 4-11% compared to Q1,” he said.

Thang forecast that Q3 will see similar new supply levels as Q2, ranging between 9,000 and 11,000 units, mainly concentrated in former HCMC and former Binh Duong. The high-end segment (Grade A) will remain dominant in former HCMC, while Grade B and C apartments will drive new supply in the suburban areas.

“New laws, decrees, and circulars effective from July 1, along with the continuation of low lending rates, will positively influence market demand. Prices are expected to edge up in areas benefiting from the administrative boundary changes. Developers are also adjusting payment plans, sales policies, and incentives, while offering interest rate support to stimulate demand,” Thang added.

Lowest supply in the past decade

Meanwhile, CBRE reported that in the first half of 2025, former HCMC saw only 1,400 apartment units launched, with about 1,000 units coming from Q2 alone.

Even though Q2’s supply doubled that in Q1, the six-month total was still 16% lower than the same period in 2024 and marked the lowest level since 2015. This suggests that supply has not yet truly recovered, despite efforts to resolve legal hurdles for housing projects since late 2024.

The average primary selling price in former HCMC reached VND82 million ($3,140) per sqm (net area), increasing by nearly 7% quarter-on-quarter and 29% year-on-year.

New launches in Q2 included one entirely new project and subsequent phases of existing projects, with prices increasing by 10-13% compared to earlier phases. The absorption rate for newly launched units in H1/2025 stood at 74%, down from 86% in the same period last year.

During Q2, developers offered a variety of promotional schemes, such as discounts ranging from 9-16% depending on payment method, loan support with a grace period of up to 10 years, and complimentary interior packages.

CBRE noted that the former HCMC housing market continued to experience limited new supply and consistently rising prices. More projects were developed in alternative markets like former Binh Duong, former Long An (Long An and Tay Ninh now merged to form the new Tay Ninh province), and former Dong Nai (Dong Nai and Binh Phuoc now merged to become the new Dong Nai province).

This trend became more prominent, especially in H1/2025, with nearly 8,300 new apartment units launched in former Binh Duong, almost six times higher than in former HCMC.

For the second half of 2025, CBRE projected that former HCMC’s new housing supply will remain limited at around 6,000 units. In contrast, suburban areas such as former Binh Duong, former Long An, and former Dong Nai are expected to be more abundant, accounting for nearly 70% of the total new housing supply in the expanded HCMC region, including former HCMC and suburban areas.

Duong Thuy Dung, executive director of CBRE Vietnam, commented that with the prices of suburban housing roughly 50% cheaper than in downtown former HCMC and greater future supply, there is still substantial potential for price growth in the suburban markets.

She forecast the average primary price for apartments in these areas will grow by 9-11% annually over the next three years.