HCMC retail property market poised for further growth away from central districts

Ho Chi Minh City’s retail market will keep expanding, especially in non-central business district (CBD) areas but more high-quality space is needed to attract more international brands to the southern hub, experts say.

The city’s retail real estate market area has reached nearly 1.5 million square meters following the opening of Parc Mall and Vincom Mega Mall Grand Park in September and July, respectively.

Of the total, over 60% are located in CBD areas, with shopping malls dominating the market, accounting for about 75% of the total retail space supply, according to a report by Canada-headquartered commercial real estate firm Avison Young.

In the third quarter of this year, monthly rental prices of retail space in HCMC remained stable, ranging from $45 to $300 per square meter in CBD areas, and from $20 to $117 per sqm in non-CBD areas.

Occupancy in CBD areas remained steady at 96% while it rose 5% to 81% in non-CBD areas. The increase was largely driven by the launch of Parc Mall, which saw a 100% occupancy rate.

Shopping malls in HCMC’s CBD areas have become prime destinations for many renowned brands thanks to their strategic locations and growing number of potential customers, the report said.

Competition between brands for prime locations in the central areas was intense, leading to a gradual increase in the presence of well-known stores in shopping malls, said David Jackson, general director of Avison Young Vietnam.

Experts with real estate services firm JLL Vietnam said that the shopping mall market in HCMC saw a net absorption of approximately 1,300 sqm in Q3, with 85% of demand driven by tenants in non-CBD areas.

High-quality supply awaited

Due to the limited availability of land in central areas, future real estate projects will primarily emerge from non-central districts such as Thu Duc city, District 8, District 5, and Go Vap district.

By the end of 2024, District 8 is expected to welcome its second-largest shopping mall – the Central Premium Mall – spanning nearly 40,000 sqm. The project is currently in its final stages.

Experts with real estate research firm CBRE noted that between 2020 and 2022, there was no new retail supply in HCMC. However, the market was becoming more dynamic in 2024 with the opening of four new shopping malls: two Vincom malls, Parc Mall and the Central Premium Mall, which is expected to be completed in Q4.

New shopping malls have brought in a variety of new brands, and several existing ones are expanding their premises. As a result, the average occupancy rate has increased from 93% to 94%. In the first nine months of 2024, 87,000 sqm of retail space was leased, reaching a three-year high.

Nearly all of the newly opened shopping malls have been almost fully occupied, which has seen average vacancy rate across both central and non-central areas stay at 5-6%.

Rents in the central areas remained relatively stable in Q3 due to the limited availability of vacant spaces, with an average of $274 per sqm each month for ground and first-floor spaces.

In contrast, the monthly average rent in non-CBD areas was $53 per sqm in Q3, down 0.9% from Q2. This slight decline has been attributed primarily to the opening of new shopping malls in suburban districts, where rental rates are more competitive but still 10% higher than the same period last year.

Overall, rental prices in HCMC have seen a significant rise in recent years, with shopping malls in prime locations remaining highly sought after by both new and established brands.

Furthermore, vacancy rate at key shopping malls in CBD areas decreased from 3% in Q2 to 2.8% in Q3, said Trang Le, head of research and consulting at JLL Vietnam.

The rate in non-CBD areas fell by two percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 4% in Q3.

No new developments are expected in both CBD and non-CBD areas by the end of this year. Next year, the CBD are is expected to welcome a new high-quality retail property through Marina Central, a development by Masterise, which will offer approximately 13,000 sqm of leasable area.

“The retail property market in HCMC is poised for continued growth, with average asking rents likely to increase 2-3% year-on-year. However, supply growth in non-CBD areas over the past year may continue to exert pressure on rental prices in those places,” Le said.

Major retailers in the food and beverage, lifestyle, and children’s recreation sectors are expected to grow, diversify, and remain key tenants in the near future, she added.