Vietnam stock market: Cash flow divide leaves many investors behind

Although Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index continues to rise, a growing divide in cash flows is leaving many investors struggling to keep pace with the rally.

After a period when abundant liquidity and optimistic sentiment lifted nearly all stocks, Vietnam’s stock market has entered a new phase marked by increasingly clear divergence among sectors and individual stocks.

As a result, not all investors are making profits, even though VN-Index, which tracks the performance of Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), continues to climb and remains at high levels.

Speaking in the Financial Street talkshow, Le Quang Chung, deputy CEO of Smart Invest Securities JSC (AAS), explained the core reason lies in the strong divergence of cash flow.

While in 2021-2022 capital flowed broadly and relatively “easily,” money is now concentrated mainly in large-cap stocks (bluechips), especially banking stocks and index-heavy large caps.

According to him, as market liquidity not yet truly booms, institutional and foreign investors tend to favor companies with strong financial foundations, high liquidity, transparent governance, and attractive valuations. These are the stocks better able to withstand macroeconomic volatility and also the easiest destinations for large-scale capital deployment.

In contrast, many speculative penny stocks or sectors facing business-cycle difficulties continue to be left behind. Typical examples include residential real estate companies with legal bottlenecks, as well as certain manufacturers under pressure from rising input costs and weakening demand. Many stocks in these groups remain sideways or in prolonged corrections.

As a consequence, Chung noted many investors who entered the market during the VN-Index’s strong rally have seen their portfolios stagnate or even incur losses because their holdings were not among the sectors favored by cash flow.

The expert identified three main barriers keeping market cash flow cautious. First is the lag in policy implementation. Expectations that Vietnam may achieve emerging market status in September 2026 are viewed as a major catalyst for the stock market.

However, foreign capital, especially from exchange traded funds (ETFs) and active funds, usually follows phased disbursement schedules. The market is still in a “waiting for confirmation” stage regarding the final implementation steps before large-scale capital truly enters.

Second is pressure from the global economy. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices and transportation costs, while new tariff policies in many major economies have increased concerns about inflation returning. This has prompted institutional investors to maintain defensive positions and avoid aggressive disbursement.

Third is the skepticism of retail investors. In a market rising amid strong divergence, many investors are caught in a state of “afraid to buy, but also afraid to sell”. They are hesitant to chase stocks at high prices, yet lacking confidence to pour capital into sectors that have not yet risen.

Regarding future trends, Chung said he believes that the divergence is likely to continue in the short term. The market may experience technical corrections aimed at “reshuffling” shareholders, retesting support zones, and easing overheated conditions in the index.

However, in the long term, the market’s main trend remains upward growth. As issues related to market upgrading become clearer in the third and fourth quarters of 2026, cash flow is expected to spread to more sectors with attractive valuations and clearer recovery stories.

“The gold mine” lies in stocks yet to attract cash flow

In the current context, Chung held that this is not the ideal time for broad-based short-term trading. Instead, the preferred strategy should focus on leading enterprises, especially VN30 companies, with stable quarterly profit growth and healthy financial foundations.

At the same time, investors should emphasize risk management and maintain a reasonable cash ratio of around 20-30% to be ready to pour cash during deep corrections. According to the expert, Vietnam’s market P/E ratio remains relatively attractive compared to many regional markets, making it suitable for accumulating fundamentally strong stocks with a 6-12 month investment horizon.

He also noted that the current divergence is a “gold mine” for patient investors. Many companies have reported positive business results, but their stock prices have yet to reflect their true value, mainly because cash flow has not yet reached them or due to sector-cycle effects.

Investors may prioritize companies with positive operating cash flow (CFO), safe debt levels, and consistent cash dividend payments. In terms of sectors, banking and VN30 stocks continue to serve as the core foundation of portfolios thanks to stable profits and their ability to attract large capital inflows, he stated.

In addition, retail, food and beverage sectors are also presenting opportunities as business results show signs of recovery while stock prices have not risen proportionately. For securities firms, the market-upgrade story remains a clear long-term driver, though company selection still requires careful screening, he added.

On the other hand, Chung said that investors should remain cautious toward real estate and speculative stocks, as many legal and financial issues remain unresolved. Attempting to “bottom-fish” stocks of companies lacking clear profit foundations could increase risks during this period of strong market divergence.

“Investors should not worry too much if stock prices do not rise immediately after purchase. In the long run, prices will eventually reflect a company’s intrinsic value. Owning quality stocks at reasonable prices is the greatest advantage for generating superior profit margins in the future,” he emphasized.