HSBC raises Vietnam’s 2024 growth forecast to 7% on ‘strong upside surprise’
HSBC has lifted its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7% from 6.5% after the country recorded stronger-than-expected growth in Q3 despite the devastation left by super typhoon Yagi.
From a challenging 2023 and Q1/2024, Vietnam is clearly back as ASEAN’s growth star. Q3 growth came in at 7.4% year-on-year, beating HSBC and market expectations of 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively, the bank said in its update released on Friday.

Tan Cang Cat Lai port in Ho Chi Minh City, southern Vietnam. Photo courtesy the port.
In July, HSBC had raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth for this year to 6.5% from its previous forecast of 6%, after second-quarter growth beat consensus.
On September 30, the British bank maintained its growth projection at 6.5% for both 2024 and 2025, despite temporary economic disruptions from super typhoon Yagi, the most powerful to hit the country in over three decades.
According to HSBC, the outperformance continued to be led by manufacturing, which grew 11.4% year-on-year. This was corroborated by healthy trade data, with exports rising 15.3% year-on-year in Q3.
“Encouragingly, the trade recovery that was initially centered around electronics is showing signs of broadening out, with textiles and footwear exports rising 16.7% year-on-year,” the bank noted.
While typhoon Yagi likely played a role in weighing on export growth in September, the impact is expected to be short-lived. In contrast, growth in the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector moderated as a reflection of typhoon Yagi’s larger impact on the sector.
Meanwhile, the recovery in domestic-oriented services continued to remain relatively muted, with the spillover from a rebounding external sector not being as pronounced. Retail sales growth has shown little signs of accelerating, while monthly international tourist arrivals have stalled amidst rising regional competition to draw travelers.
“That said, encouraging green shoots can be observed, with financial and real estate services showing an acceleration in Q3/2024. The revised Land Law effective August will buttress improving sentiment seen in the real estate sector, while ongoing government measures such as tax cuts should also support the domestic retail sector with time,” said the bank.
Inflation has shown notable moderation in recent months on the back of base effects and more favorable price developments vis-à-vis commodity prices and currency moves. While risks such as supply-side disruptions from typhoon Yagi and geopolitical conflicts remain present, inflation well below the government’s 4.5% target ceiling will allow the State Bank of Vietnam to maintain an accommodative stance and focus on supporting growth.
For 2025, HSBC keeps its GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.5%. The bank also keeps its inflation forecasts and policy rate views unchanged, with external risks still in the periphery.
On FDI, Vietnam continued to attract foreign inflows as fundamental prospects remain positive.
Looking ahead, manufacturing inflows are also likely to remain resilient, with Party General Secretary To Lam’s recent visit to the U.S. yielding investment intentions from various firms such as Meta, said HSBC.
Continued efforts to deepen ties with international partners will also act as a tailwind for further investment inflows, with Vietnam recently upgrading relations with France to a comprehensive strategic partnership, it added.
Earlier this week, Singapore-headquartered United Overseas Bank (UOB) revised its projection for Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.4% from 5.9% after a "surprisingly strong" Q3 performance.
Similarly, the World Bank raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.1% from 5.5% released in April.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Vietnam’s growth is projected to recover to 6.1% in 2024, up from the 5.8% forecast for April.
Also last month, U.S.-based market intelligence company S&P Global revised up its GDP growth for Vietnam to 6.2% this year, higher than the 5.8% figure in June.
The Vietnamese government seeks to grow its economy by 7.6-8% in Q4/2024 to reach the whole-year reading at 7% or more, higher than the National Assembly-mandated target of 6-6.5%, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said on Monday.
- Read More
Listed Vietnamese companies almost not involved in 'transshipping': Dragon Capital
Only about 1.5% of the total revenue of Vietnamese companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) comes from exports to the U.S., meaning "transshipping" is almost irrelevant, says Dragon Capital, a leading foreign-run asset management firm in Vietnam.
Economy - Sun, July 6, 2025 | 1:39 pm GMT+7
Indonesia maintains lowest debt ratio among G20 members
Indonesia’s external debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 30.6% in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest among the Group of Twenty (G20) comprising major developed and emerging economies, according to data from the Bank of Indonesia.
Southeast Asia - Sun, July 6, 2025 | 11:27 am GMT+7
Thailand's digital GDP expected to grow 6.2% this year
The Digital Economy and Society (DES) Ministry of Thailand expects digital GDP this year to expand by 6.2% year-on-year, despite the potential impact of the U.S.'s reciprocal tariffs.
Southeast Asia - Sun, July 6, 2025 | 10:44 am GMT+7
Healthcare M&As surge in Vietnam on foreign capital inflows
Despite a global downturn in healthcare M&A activity, Vietnam’s market has witnessed major deals in the first half of 2025.
Finance - Sun, July 6, 2025 | 10:40 am GMT+7
Vietnam’s cement giant Vicem posts profit after 2 years of losses
After two consecutive years of losses, Vietnam Cement Industry Corporation (Vicem) has reported a consolidated after-tax profit of over VND34 billion ($1.3 million) in the first half of 2025.
Companies - Sun, July 6, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Indonesia, Saudi Arabia sign $10 bln deal on green projects
Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF) Danantara has signed an MoU with ACWA Power, a Saudi Arabian leading green energy corporation, to explore investments in renewable energy projects with total funding estimated at up to $10 billion.
Southeast Asia - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 11:26 pm GMT+7
Thailand yet to reach tariff deal with US: official
Thailand has yet to conclude negotiations with the U.S. on reciprocal tariffs but has gained “valuable insights” that will guide the development of a revised proposal, Thai Deputy Prime Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said on Friday.
Southeast Asia - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 11:24 pm GMT+7
Soilbuild International starts work on $60 mln ready-built industrial facility project in northern Vietnam
Singapore-based real estate developer Soilbuild International has broken ground on a $60 million ready-built industrial facility in Vietnam’s northern province of Hung Yen.
Industrial real estate - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 11:20 pm GMT+7
Phu Quoc casino owner issues $91.67 mln bonds in capital restructuring
Phu Quoc Tourism Development and Investment JSC, owner of the Corona casino on Vietnam’s resort island of Phu Quoc, has completed the issuance of VND2.4 trillion ($91.67 million) in five-year bonds as part of its capital restructuring plan.
Companies - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 5:54 pm GMT+7
SK Group pushes for potential investment in $2.2 bln LNG-fired power plant in central Vietnam
A delegation from South Korean chaebol SK Group has held a second round of talks with Nghe An province authorities to explore investment opportunities for a $2.2 billion LNG-fuelled power plant project.
Energy - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 1:47 pm GMT+7
Vietnam GDP grows 7.52% in H1, 15-year record high
Vietnam's economic growth rate reached 7.52% in the first six months of the year, a record high in the period 2011-2025, the General Statistics Office reported on Saturday.
Economy - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 10:46 am GMT+7
Vietnam needs two-pronged policy approach to mitigate impact of rising oil prices: RMIT experts
A surge in global oil prices poses a significant threat to Vietnam’s economy and to cushion these impacts, the country needs a two-pronged policy approach, write Dr Vu Hong Nhung and Dr Phan Thanh Chung, lecturers at the economics and finance department, Business School, RMIT University Vietnam.
Consulting - Sat, July 5, 2025 | 8:54 am GMT+7
Vietnam's registered FDI tops $21 bln in H1, highest in 16 years
Registered foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam hit over $21.51 billion in the first half of the year, up 32.6% and a record high since 2009, while disbursed capital reached $11.72 billion, up 8.1%.
Economy - Fri, July 4, 2025 | 8:50 pm GMT+7
Gemadept’s southern Vietnam port receives mega container ships
Within just over two years of trial operations (from March 2023 to May 2025), Gemalink Port of Vietnamese logistics giant Gemadept in Ba Ria-Vung Tau has safely received 70 container vessels of over 200,000 DWT (up to 232,494.5 DWT) under partially loaded conditions.
Companies - Fri, July 4, 2025 | 4:54 pm GMT+7
Agro-forestry-fisheries exports near $34 bln in H1
Vietnam’s agro-forestry-fisheries exports hit $33.84 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 15.5% increase year-on-year.
Economy - Fri, July 4, 2025 | 3:36 pm GMT+7
Malaysia’s data center operators struggle due to power cost hike
Malaysia’s data center sector is projected to grow at a 22% CAGR from 2023 to 2029 due to cost competitiveness, skilled workforce, and a robust digital ecosystem, according to a report by global investment bank ARC Group.
Southeast Asia - Fri, July 4, 2025 | 3:23 pm GMT+7