HSBC raises Vietnam’s 2024 growth forecast to 7% on ‘strong upside surprise’
HSBC has lifted its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 7% from 6.5% after the country recorded stronger-than-expected growth in Q3 despite the devastation left by super typhoon Yagi.
From a challenging 2023 and Q1/2024, Vietnam is clearly back as ASEAN’s growth star. Q3 growth came in at 7.4% year-on-year, beating HSBC and market expectations of 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively, the bank said in its update released on Friday.

Tan Cang Cat Lai port in Ho Chi Minh City, southern Vietnam. Photo courtesy the port.
In July, HSBC had raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth for this year to 6.5% from its previous forecast of 6%, after second-quarter growth beat consensus.
On September 30, the British bank maintained its growth projection at 6.5% for both 2024 and 2025, despite temporary economic disruptions from super typhoon Yagi, the most powerful to hit the country in over three decades.
According to HSBC, the outperformance continued to be led by manufacturing, which grew 11.4% year-on-year. This was corroborated by healthy trade data, with exports rising 15.3% year-on-year in Q3.
“Encouragingly, the trade recovery that was initially centered around electronics is showing signs of broadening out, with textiles and footwear exports rising 16.7% year-on-year,” the bank noted.
While typhoon Yagi likely played a role in weighing on export growth in September, the impact is expected to be short-lived. In contrast, growth in the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector moderated as a reflection of typhoon Yagi’s larger impact on the sector.
Meanwhile, the recovery in domestic-oriented services continued to remain relatively muted, with the spillover from a rebounding external sector not being as pronounced. Retail sales growth has shown little signs of accelerating, while monthly international tourist arrivals have stalled amidst rising regional competition to draw travelers.
“That said, encouraging green shoots can be observed, with financial and real estate services showing an acceleration in Q3/2024. The revised Land Law effective August will buttress improving sentiment seen in the real estate sector, while ongoing government measures such as tax cuts should also support the domestic retail sector with time,” said the bank.
Inflation has shown notable moderation in recent months on the back of base effects and more favorable price developments vis-à-vis commodity prices and currency moves. While risks such as supply-side disruptions from typhoon Yagi and geopolitical conflicts remain present, inflation well below the government’s 4.5% target ceiling will allow the State Bank of Vietnam to maintain an accommodative stance and focus on supporting growth.
For 2025, HSBC keeps its GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.5%. The bank also keeps its inflation forecasts and policy rate views unchanged, with external risks still in the periphery.
On FDI, Vietnam continued to attract foreign inflows as fundamental prospects remain positive.
Looking ahead, manufacturing inflows are also likely to remain resilient, with Party General Secretary To Lam’s recent visit to the U.S. yielding investment intentions from various firms such as Meta, said HSBC.
Continued efforts to deepen ties with international partners will also act as a tailwind for further investment inflows, with Vietnam recently upgrading relations with France to a comprehensive strategic partnership, it added.
Earlier this week, Singapore-headquartered United Overseas Bank (UOB) revised its projection for Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.4% from 5.9% after a "surprisingly strong" Q3 performance.
Similarly, the World Bank raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.1% from 5.5% released in April.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Vietnam’s growth is projected to recover to 6.1% in 2024, up from the 5.8% forecast for April.
Also last month, U.S.-based market intelligence company S&P Global revised up its GDP growth for Vietnam to 6.2% this year, higher than the 5.8% figure in June.
The Vietnamese government seeks to grow its economy by 7.6-8% in Q4/2024 to reach the whole-year reading at 7% or more, higher than the National Assembly-mandated target of 6-6.5%, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung said on Monday.
- Read More
Vietnam mulls opening door for private investment in small modular reactors
Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade has drafted a parliamentary resolution that, for the first time, would allow private companies to participate in the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs).
Energy - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 4:37 pm GMT+7
Kido seeks buyer for remaining 49% stake in frozen food affiliate
Kido Group (HoSE: KDC), a leading food company in Vietnam, has approved a plan to divest the firm's remaining 49% stake in its affiliate Kido Frozen Food JSC (Kido Foods).
Companies - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 4:25 pm GMT+7
Le Ngoc Quang appointed Danang city's Party chief
Le Ngoc Quang, a Party Central Committee member and Party chief of Quang Tri province, has been appointed Party chief of Danang for the 2025-2030 term - the highest position in the city, central Vietnam's economic hub.
Politics - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 4:17 pm GMT+7
T&T Group seeks to reshape north-central Vietnam’s urban landscape with major projects
Multi-sector conglomerate T&T Group is developing a model eco-urban complex in Ha Tinh province and plans to build a massive 236-hectare urban area in neighboring Nghe An, with an aim to reshape north-central Vietnam's urban landscape.
Investing - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 2:44 pm GMT+7
Toyota plans $359 mln plant expansion in northern Vietnam
Toyota Motor Vietnam (TMV) plans to invest about VND9.46 trillion ($359.2 million) in the first phase of its plant expansion project in Phu Tho province.
Investing - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 2:09 pm GMT+7
PVI Insurance sees 9-month profit before tax more than doubling
PVI Insurance has reaffirmed its position as the No. 1 non-life insurer in Vietnam, with total revenue increasing nearly 1.4 times in the first nine months of 2025 and pre-tax profit more than doubling year-on-year - surpassing its full-year targets for both revenue and profit.
Companies - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 9:08 am GMT+7
Vingroup to develop 4,600ha coastal urban project in northern Vietnam
A consortium of Vingroup (HoSE: VIC) and its real estate arm Vinhomes (HoSE: VHM) will develop a 4,600-hectare coastal urban complex in Ha An ward, Quang Ninh province, following local authorities’ approval of a zoning plan.
Real Estate - Fri, October 17, 2025 | 8:30 am GMT+7
Indonesia resumes int’l carbon trading after 4-year hiatus
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has issued a new decree to restart international carbon emissions trading after a four-year hiatus.
Southeast Asia - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 9:23 pm GMT+7
Investors seek 2-year delay for $2.56 bln LNG power project in northern Vietnam, citing equipment hurdles
Investors of a $2.56 billion LNG-fired power plant in Hung Yen province have proposed delaying the project’s commercial operation schedule by two years due to difficulties securing key equipment.
Energy - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 9:04 pm GMT+7
Vietnam to soon raise taxpayers' personal deduction: official
The personal income tax deduction in Vietnam is "very likely" to increase to VND21.7 million ($823,940) per month, including VND15.5 million (588,530) for the taxpayer and VND6.2 million ($235,410) for each dependent.
Finance - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 6:25 pm GMT+7
Business confidence climbs as reforms gain traction amid global headwinds: EuroCham Vietnam
The index climbed to 66.5, surpassing pre-tariffs level and reaching its highest in three years – showcasing resilience and adaptability amid global headwinds and evolving U.S. tariff pressures.
Economy - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 4:36 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's stock market watchdog suspends two Grant Thornton auditors
Vietnam's State Securities Commission (SSC) has suspended two auditors from Grant Thornton Vietnam after determining that the 2024 audited financial statements of Saigon Water Infrastructure Corporation (HoSE: SII) failed to meet required standards.
Finance - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 3:35 pm GMT+7
Law No. 56 a major policy breakthrough for Vietnam's stock market development
The Law No. 56, effective January 1, 2025, is one of the major legal breakthroughs in recent years that will enhance the transparency and operational efficiency of the Vietnamese stock market.
Finance - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 2:30 pm GMT+7
WHA Group breaks ground on smart technology industrial zone in central Vietnam
Thailand's WHA Group on Tuesday broke ground on a world-class, modern, and environmentally friendly industrial zone in central Vietnam, namely the WHA Smart Technology Industrial Zone-Thanh Hoa.
Real Estate - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 2:00 pm GMT+7
Vietnam a key partner in Murphy Oil’s global strategy: exec
Vietnam remains a key partner in Murphy Oil’s global business strategy, said Eric Hambly, the U.S. corporation's president and CEO.
Companies - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 12:06 pm GMT+7
VNPT, Qualcomm debut Vietnam’s 1st original design-based excellence center
State-owned Vietnam Posts and Telecommunications Group (VNPT) and Qualcomm have officially launched the VNPT-Qualcomm Excellence Center (VQEC), the first facility in the country to operate under an original design co-development model using Qualcomm’s core technologies.
Companies - Thu, October 16, 2025 | 8:41 am GMT+7