UOB raises Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 6.4% after Q3 'surprise'

By Quang Minh
Tue, October 8, 2024 | 3:29 pm GMT+7

Researchers with Singapore-headquartered United Overseas Bank (UOB) have revised up their projection for Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.4% from 5.9% after a "surprisingly strong" Q3 performance.

The revision is to account for the year-to-date performance and the disruptions to activities in early Q4/2024 caused by typhoon Yagi, the bank said in a release on Tuesday.

A tourist boat in Lan Ha bay, Cat Hai district, Hai Phong city, northern Vietnam is in service after typhoon Yagi swept through the location. Photo courtesy of VOV newspaper.

A tourist boat in Lan Ha bay, Cat Hai district, Hai Phong city, northern Vietnam is in service after typhoon Yagi swept through the location. Photo courtesy of VOV newspaper.

UOB’s upward revision marked a turnaround as the bank late last month had cut its 2024 growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.1 percentage point to 5.9%, taking into account the damage caused by typhoon Yagi which made landfall in Vietnam on September 7, leaving over 300 dead and devastating the northern region.

According to government data released on October 6, the local economy expanded 7.4% in Q3, higher than the median consensus view of 6.1% and UOB’s forecast of 5.7%.

This was the fastest pace since Q3/2022 when activities rebounded sharply from the trough of the pandemic. “The surprise Q3/2024 outcome reflected the resilience of the economy, despite the devastation by deadly typhoon Yagi,” the bank said.

The latest figure extended the revised 7.09% gain in Q2/2024, resulting in a cumulative 6.82% year-on-year increase in the first nine months of 2024.

The Q3 pace would have been much higher without the typhoon, said Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong on Monday.

The UOB researchers commented that both the manufacturing and services sectors continued to be the main drivers of business activities, while external trade maintained its strong pace in Q3/2024.

The upswing in semiconductor sales since mid-2023 suggests that the momentum will likely be sustained in the one to two quarters ahead, they added.

They kept their growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 6.6%, reflecting an expected ramp-up in output early next year to compensate for the earlier losses as a result of typhoon Yagi, as well as spillover effects from U.S. Fed’s policy easing and China’s stimulus measures.

With inflation showing signs of easing, USD strength expected to wane further on the back of the U.S. Fed easing policy, and with adverse effects spreading in the aftermath of typhoon Yagi, the risks of the State Bank of Vietnam shifting towards easing its policy have certainly been more considerable than before, said the researchers.

They anticipated the SBV maintaining its refinancing rate at the current 4.5% while focusing on facilitating loan growth and other support measures.

On Tuesday, the World Bank revised up its 2024 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 6.1% in the October edition of its East Asia and the Pacific (EAP) Economic Update, up from 5.5% in the April edition.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh asked government agencies to strive for a growth rate of 7.5-8% in Q4/2024, for the whole-year performance of 7% and above.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Vingroup plans $14.3 bln port, logistics center project in northern Vietnam

Vingroup plans $14.3 bln port, logistics center project in northern Vietnam

Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup (HoSE: VIC) plans to invest VND373.84 trillion ($14.3 billion) in a port and logistics center in the northern coastal city of Hai Phong.

Infrastructure - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 2:28 pm GMT+7

Ha Long, Hoi An, Sa Pa honored as top Southeast Asian destinations by Gulf News

Ha Long, Hoi An, Sa Pa honored as top Southeast Asian destinations by Gulf News

Three iconic Vietnamese destinations - Ha Long, Hoi An, and Sa Pa - have been spotlighted in the “Top 15 Southeast Asia tourist destinations - why it's worth a visit” curated by Gulf News, one of the most prestigious publications in the United Arab Emirates.

Travel - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 2:13 pm GMT+7

The mesmerizing opening of the Xoe Festival at Fansipan, Sa Pa

The mesmerizing opening of the Xoe Festival at Fansipan, Sa Pa

The vibrant Xoe Festival took place at May Village in the Sun World Fansipan Legend from July 12 to 27, inviting visitors to immerse themselves in the rich cultural tapestry of the ethnic communities in Vietnam’s Northwest mountains.

Travel - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 2:01 pm GMT+7

Vietnamese spice 'tycoon' shares 10 key tips for startups looking to export

Vietnamese spice 'tycoon' shares 10 key tips for startups looking to export

Nguyen Trung Dung, founder and CEO of Dh Foods - a Vietnamese spice company currently exporting to 15 countries - believes that startups must prioritize intellectual property registration and trade show participation if they want to take their products global.

Companies - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 1:25 pm GMT+7

Upgraded 500kV Viet Tri substation in northern Vietnam energized

Upgraded 500kV Viet Tri substation in northern Vietnam energized

The National Power Transmission Corporation (EVNNPT) and the National Power Transmission Project Management Board (NPTPMB) on Monday energized the upgraded 500kV Viet Tri substation in Vietnam’s northern province of Phu Tho.

Companies - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 1:15 pm GMT+7

US cuts tariff to 20% on Vietnam, investment unaffected: expert

US cuts tariff to 20% on Vietnam, investment unaffected: expert

The U.S.'s new 20% reciprocal tariff on Vietnamese imports, down from 46%, will not derail investment flows into Vietnam, according to Dr. Le Quang Minh from the University of Economics and Business under Vietnam National University-Hanoi.

Companies - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 1:06 pm GMT+7

VinFast inaugurates first offshore EV assembly plant in India

VinFast inaugurates first offshore EV assembly plant in India

Vietnamese automaker VinFast on Monday opened its electric vehicle (EV) assembly plant in the SIPCOT Industrial Park, Thoothukudi city, Tamil Nadu, India.

Companies - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 12:47 pm GMT+7

Legal hurdles delay in-principle approval for $2.15 bln Quynh Lap LNG-fired power plant in central Vietnam

Legal hurdles delay in-principle approval for $2.15 bln Quynh Lap LNG-fired power plant in central Vietnam

Nghe An province's Department of Finance has proposed extending the deadline for the Quynh Lap LNG-fired power project to fulfill in-principle approval procedures, citing recent changes to legal regulations.

Energy - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 12:03 pm GMT+7

Financial income helps Vietnam’s real estate developer Phat Dat avoid Q2 loss

Financial income helps Vietnam’s real estate developer Phat Dat avoid Q2 loss

Financial income of VND226 billion ($8.62 million) became the saving grace for Ho Chi Minh City-based Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC in Q2/2025, offsetting weak core revenue and losses from other activities.

Companies - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 8:59 am GMT+7

Q2 net profits of Vietnam’s listed companies see strongest growth in 6 quarters

Q2 net profits of Vietnam’s listed companies see strongest growth in 6 quarters

The after-tax profit of listed companies in Vietnam surged by 33.6% year-on-year in Q2/2025, marking the highest growth rate in the past six quarters, according to FiinTrade, a Hanoi-based financial information platform.

Finance - Tue, August 5, 2025 | 8:46 am GMT+7

Thailand seeks measures to support exporters

Thailand seeks measures to support exporters

Thailand’s Ministry of Commerce has said it will work closely with financial institutions to help Thai exporters weather the impact of the new tariffs imposed on Thai goods bound for the U.S.

Southeast Asia - Mon, August 4, 2025 | 10:19 pm GMT+7

Thailand leverages strengths to draw foreign capital

Thailand leverages strengths to draw foreign capital

Thailand's Board of Investment (BOI) is promoting five core competitive advantages to attract foreign capital, expressing confidence that the country remains an attractive destination despite the U.S.'s newly announced 19% reciprocal tariffs.

Southeast Asia - Mon, August 4, 2025 | 10:16 pm GMT+7

Pou Chen Group subsidiary fined for environmental violations in Vietnam

Pou Chen Group subsidiary fined for environmental violations in Vietnam

Pou Sung Vietnam Co., Ltd., under Taiwan's Pou Chen Group - a key supplier for Nike and Adidas, has been fined VND705 million ($26,730) by Dong Nai province's authorities for multiple violations of environmental regulations.

Companies - Mon, August 4, 2025 | 10:13 pm GMT+7

PVI Insurance: Brand positioning through internal strength, trust, and innovation

PVI Insurance: Brand positioning through internal strength, trust, and innovation

For the second consecutive year, PVI Insurance Corporation has been honored as the leader in the “Top 10 Most Reputable Non-Life Insurance Companies in Vietnam 2025,” organized by Vietnam Report in collaboration with online newspaper VietNamNet.

Companies - Mon, August 4, 2025 | 5:34 pm GMT+7

S. Korean firm LGES eyes electric motorbike manufacturing in northern Vietnam

S. Korean firm LGES eyes electric motorbike manufacturing in northern Vietnam

The Seoul-based LG Energy Solution (LGES) plans to invest in an electric motorbike manufacturing plant and charging stations in the northern province of Phu Tho with official development assistance (ODA) funding, said its senior manager Lee Jin Woo.

Investing - Mon, August 4, 2025 | 5:04 pm GMT+7

Carlsberg Vietnam's journey of sustainable growth and lasting commitment with central Vietnam

Carlsberg Vietnam's journey of sustainable growth and lasting commitment with central Vietnam

In 2025, Carlsberg Vietnam, along with its beloved Huda brand, celebrates seven years of a promise that continues to flow strong, “Fresh Water for Beloved Central”.

Companies - Mon, August 4, 2025 | 2:36 pm GMT+7