S&P Global revises up Vietnam’s GDP growth to 6.2% in 2024

S&P Global, a U.S.-based market intelligence company, has revised up Vietnam’s GDP growth this year to 6.2%, in its latest “Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Q4 2024” report.

The figure is higher than the 5.8% figure in a June report by S&P Global. For 2024, Vietnam’s revised figure is among the highest for emerging economies, only behind India with 6.8%. It is also higher than the 18-country group’s average of 4.2%.

Regarding Southeast Asia, S&P Global said growth in the region averaged close to 5.0% in the next few years, up from 4.4% in 2023. It expected Southeast Asian emerging market countries to benefit from resilient domestic demand and gradual upcoming monetary easing.

“Tourism is recovering, and electronics exports continue to improve, although both of these dynamics remain highly dependent on global growth,” S&P Global added.

The electronics industry can continue to boost several emerging market countries in Southeast Asia, S&P Global pointed out. In Vietnam, for example, “manufacturing output grew about 10% year over year in the first half of 2024. The sector can be cyclical, however, and momentum may swing if global demand weakens,” S&P Global emphasized.

In its latest report, S&P Global also projected Vietnam’s GDP growth at 6.8% in 2025, 6.7% in 2026, and 6.6% in 2027. Additionally, it anticipated Vietnam’s inflation at 3.6% this year, below the country’s target of 4-4.5%, and 3.1% in 2025.

Also in September, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) revised down its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam by 0.1 percentage point to 5.9% this year due to the damage caused by super typhoon Yagi.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) retained its forecast of Vietnam's economic growth at 6% this year.

Super typhoon Yagi can reduce Vietnam’s GDP growth this year by 0.16 and 0.45 percentage points, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), among the biggest banking institutions in Japan.