Improved domestic manufacturing to drive Vietnam stock market in 2025: brokerage

Vietnam’s stock market in 2025 will be fuelled by the recovery of domestic manufacturing, a key driver of growth, according to broker Mirae Asset.

Domestic manufacturing is showing significant improvement compared to the 2022-2023 period, its analysts said in a report.

"This optimism is supported by the benefits of supply chain diversification under the “China +1” strategy, which will likely continue to attract FDI into Vietnam," they noted.

Domestic consumption trends indicate a mixed outlook. While listed retailers have shown signs of recovery in 2024, growth in 2025 is expected to slow due to cautious consumer spending.

The analysts forecast a steady but modest growth in consumer spending next year, influenced by asset depreciation from the uneven recovery of the real estate and stock markets.

Bad debt will remain a challenge. To address the widening gap between credit growth and deposit mobilization, commercial banks have adopted a dual strategy: gradually raising deposit interest rates and actively issuing bonds.

Although asset quality improved slightly in Q3/2024, with the non-performing loans ratio falling to 2.47%, this figure remains 0.42 percentage points higher than at the start of the year.

They predict that commercial banks will likely pursue a three-pronged strategy in 2025: increasing credit risk provisions, promoting bond issuance to support credit growth, and restructuring corporate debt.

Challenges in the corporate bond market are another concern. The grace period for bonds with rescheduled payment terms under Decree 08/2023/ND-CP will soon end, creating risks to bank asset quality and liquidity distress in the first half of 2025. These risks are particularly pronounced in the real estate, construction, and energy sectors.

They also highlighted several global macroeconomic risks to the local stock market. These include the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to undermine European economic growth; strong capital flows into the U.S. market, leading to significant capital outflows from other regions; and the potential for new tariff policies during President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, which could heighten the risk of a global trade war.

Additionally, stagnating manufacturing activities in major economies, especially in Europe and China, is also another concern. Persistent inflation in the U.S. and Europe suggests a bumpy road for interest rate policies. The Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance and the potential for continued interest rate hikes pose risks of unwinding the carry trade strategy.

This month, capital inflows are expected to generate a broader gain for VN-Index, Vietnam’s benchmark, toward the resistance zone of 1,300 points, the analysts remarked.