Monetary policy easing expected for 2023: top broker SSI

Vietnam’s monetary policy is expected to be eased this year as the current interest rate is at a high level and economic growth is forecast to face more difficulties due to external factors, said securities broker SSI.

Vietnam’s credit strongly expanded in the first half of 2022 but cooled down in the second half amid tighter financial conditions. Right after the October bond-related incident at the Saigon Commercial Bank (SCB) that had a strong impact on the banking system’s liquidity, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) gave the highest priority to implementing solutions to ensure system safety and stabilize the forex market.

“It is hoped that the central bank will keep its management goal unchanged for 2023, based on the actual market situation to apply appropriate solutions,” SSI Securities wrote in a new report.

The broker added it expects an eased monetary policy and open fiscal policy will be applied to promote growth.

In a report released Thursday, HSBC said it expects the SBV to slow its monetary tightening pace as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slow and forex volatility has eased, though the Fed’s hiking cycle would be still underway.

The bank predicted the SBV to raise its refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points each in the first and second quarters of this year, taking the refinancing rate to 7.0% by mid-2023.

In mid-October, the SBV put SCB under special control to stabilize its operations and limit negative impacts on the bank and the country's banking system. On October 7, many SCB branches and transaction offices recorded a run of withdrawals due to concerns about the bank’s financial health.

These withdrawals were triggered by news of the sudden death of Nguyen Tien Thanh, chairman and CEO of Tan Viet Securities and also an independent board member of SCB; and the arrest of Truong My Lan, chairwoman of property developer Van Thinh Phat Group, for violations in bond issuance.