Vietnam banking, retail, oil stocks well placed for market recovery: brokerages

Vietnamese banking, retail and oil-gas stocks are among the sectors best positioned to benefit from a potential market recovery after months of pressure from geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic headwinds, according to local brokerages.

Analysts said recent signs of easing tensions in the Middle East and supportive domestic policies are creating opportunities for investors to accumulate positions ahead of a new growth cycle.

Ceasefire hopes improve market outlook

Vietnam's stock market has spent much of the first half of the year under pressure from the conflict in the Middle East. Recent announcements by the United States and Iran that they had reached an agreement to end hostilities have improved investor sentiment and strengthened expectations of a market rebound.

MBS Securities said a ceasefire between the two countries and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could provide a fresh catalyst for domestic equities at a time when the market has lacked supportive news.

Since the outbreak of hostilities, the benchmark VN-Index has fallen 4.7%, while the VN30 index has declined 5.7%. Mid-cap and small-cap indices have dropped 8.5% and 11.5%, respectively.

The VN-Index has also recorded four consecutive weeks of losses, its longest losing streak since November 2025, reflecting the cumulative impact of adverse macroeconomic developments. MBS noted that since the tariff-related market bottom in April 2025, previous correction cycles have not exceeded five consecutive weeks.

Shares of Vingroup have also weighed heavily on the benchmark, shaving nearly 20 points off the VN-Index over the past week and about 45 points over the past month.

Against that backdrop, MBS advised investors to remain cautious and maintain elevated cash positions while gradually taking profits and preparing to deploy capital when valuations become more attractive.

The brokerage highlighted banking, securities, residential real estate, retail, food producers, industrial park developers, logistics companies, natural rubber producers and Vingroup-related stocks as sectors attracting investor interest.

Meanwhile, another broker, Vietcap, raised its year-end 2026 target for the VN-Index to 1,955 points and projected the benchmark could reach 2,280 points by the end of 2027. The brokerage expects aggregate earnings of listed companies to increase 20% in 2026 and a further 17% in 2027, based on bottom-up estimates.

The forecast is underpinned by expectations that Vietnam's economy will maintain solid growth momentum, supported by accelerated public investment and reforms aimed at improving capital mobilization and the business environment.

The State Bank of Vietnam is also expected to continue balancing growth support with macroeconomic stability through flexible monetary policy. Initial credit growth quotas have been set cautiously, while restrictions on property lending remain in place to limit financial risks.

At the same time, the central bank has sought to support liquidity and lower borrowing costs. A new regulation allows commercial banks to count 20% of term deposits from the State Treasury toward their loan-to-deposit ratio calculations, while authorities have encouraged banks to reduce deposit rates to support economic activity.

Banks, retail, energy among preferred sectors

Vietcap recommends increasing exposure to banking, consumer retail and oil-gas stocks during the second half of the year as the economy gathers momentum.

The banking sector is expected to remain a pillar of the market, supported by projected earnings growth of 18% year-on-year. Given elevated macroeconomic risks linked to higher energy prices, the brokerage favors large banks with strong asset quality and solid capital buffers.

Retail is viewed as an attractive long-term structural growth story, driven by favorable demographics, rising disposable incomes and the continued shift from traditional retail channels toward modern commerce.

The oil and gas sector is also entering what analysts expect to be a multi-year upcycle in exploration and production activity, supported by policy measures designed to accelerate major projects and infrastructure investment.

Vietnam's ambition to achieve double-digit economic growth and strengthen energy security is expected to underpin demand and generate significant business opportunities across the industry.

SSI Research noted that periods of heightened macroeconomic stress have historically created some of the most attractive investment opportunities. During previous downturns in 2011 and 2022, characterized by inflation, monetary tightening, geopolitical risks and weak liquidity, the VN-Index subsequently rallied between 60% and 80% over the following recovery periods.

Although 2026 shares some of the same challenges, including higher interest rates, inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, SSI, a leading brokerage, believes Vietnam's macroeconomic fundamentals are more resilient than in previous cycles due to lower public debt, a more diversified economy and ongoing legal and capital market reforms.

For medium- and long-term investors, the brokerage argues that the current market correction could represent an important accumulation phase, with short-term volatility masking increasingly attractive valuations.

SSI expects building materials and retail companies to deliver some of the strongest earnings growth in 2026, while financial firms are likely to continue benefiting from stable credit demand and supportive structural trends.