The Vietnamese economy is expected to expand by 6.83% at the most in 2023, a little higher than the National Assembly target of 6.5%, the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) forecast Thursday.
The Hanoi-based institute, part of the Ministry of Planning and Investment, announced its two scenarios for Vietnam's 2023 GDP growth, with two predictions of 6.47% and 6.83%. The higher rate represents a better-than-expected global economic recovery.
CIEM said this year Vietnam may be influenced by more factors like pandemics and diseases, key economies’ tightening monetary policy to curb inflation, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict, and lower global demand for Vietnamese exports.
According to the institute, the government should speed up administrative reforms, improve growth quality, promote innovation, and try new business models based on digital and green transition.
Prior to CIEM, the World Bank forecast Vietnam may grow 6.3% this year, while Standard Chartered and HSBC predicted 7.2% and 5.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Singapore's United Overseas Bank forecast 6.62%.
With last year’s 8.02% GDP growth, the highest in 12 years, Vietnam was one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies. However, the high growth rate in 2022 is partly derived from the low growth base in the two pandemic years 2020-2021, at 2.91% and 2.58% respectively.