Vietnam's 2023 economic expansion likely 5.8%: HSBC
Vietnam’s GDP growth would moderate to 5.8% in 2023 from 8.02% last year, given the external weakness and waning re-opening effects, HSBC said Thursday.
With last year’s 8.02% expansion, the highest in 12 years, Vietnam was one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, but 2023 would be a challenging year, the bank noted.
HSBC's prediction is lower than the Vietnamese National Assembly’s 6.5% target, which is slightly lower than the Singapore-headquartered United Overseas Bank's (UOB) 6.62% forecast.

A new urban area in Hanoi, northern Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the government's portal.
According to HSBC, the biggest downside risk to Vietnam’s growth this year is intensifying trade headwinds. Vietnam’s external engine has moderated sharply in the past few months, and the outlook is uncertain for the new year, as its major trading partners’ growth is set to slow.
The country recorded export revenue of $371.85 billion in 2022, up 10.6% year-on-year. Of this, foreign-invested enterprises accounted for $276.76 billion, up 12.1%, or 74.4%.
HSBC warned that high inflation is worth a close watch, as Vietnam continues to see stronger inflation pressures, particularly on core prices. “We expect average inflation to accelerate to 4.0% in 2023.”
Vietnam’s consumer price index increased by 3.15% last year, while average core inflation in 2022 rose 2.59%, according to the General Statistics Office.
HSBC said there is plenty of room for Vietnam’s tourism sector to continue recovering. China’s re-opening on January 8 would likely provide a boost. In addition, Vietnam remains an attractive FDI destination, providing some cushion to offset immediate trade headwinds.
“Not only have traditional tech giants like Samsung and LG continued their expansion plans in the country, but new players such as Apple have also been adding production lines in their supply chain diversions to Vietnam,” the global bank noted.
Vietnam’s tourism recovery has lagged behind its peers. The Southeast Asian country in 2022 welcomed around 3.6 million international tourists, or 70% of its annual target, just equal to 20% of 2019’s level.
Due to global trade headwinds, Vietnam’s exports slumped by 14% year-on-year in December 2022, with broad-based weakness across major items, including electronics. Meanwhile, imports also fell sharply by 8.1% in the month, mostly driven by tech-related imports.
“This suggests that Vietnam has been in the frontline from a cooling global tech cycle, given its import-intensive nature in electronics manufacturing.”
Vietnam’s manufacturing outlook is set to face challenges. Its manufacturing sector moved deeper into contraction amid deteriorating demand both domestically and abroad as its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) announced by S&P Global dropped to 46.4 in December 2022 from 47.4 in November. The latest result is under the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.
In terms of monetary policy, HSBC said it expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to slow its monetary tightening pace as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slow and forex volatility has eased, though the Fed’s hiking cycle would be still underway.
HSBC expects the SBV to raise its refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points each in the first and second quarters of this year, taking the refinancing rate to 7.0% by mid-2023.
- Read More
Malaysian eyes global hub for advanced chip industry
Malaysia is rapidly emerging as a preferred destination for high-value investments in the semiconductor sector, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said at the launch of the East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) operations and maintenance training program.
Southeast Asia - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 10:53 pm GMT+7
Indonesia faces challenge of boosting labour productivity
Despite being in a demographic golden period, Indonesia continues to struggle with low labor productivity, prompting calls for clear and sustainable reforms.
Southeast Asia - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 10:49 pm GMT+7
Singapore, EU ink digital trade agreement
Singapore and the EU on May 7 signed a landmark Digital Trade Agreement (DTA) to provide greater clarity and legal certainty for consumers and businesses on both sides to transact online more seamlessly.
Southeast Asia - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 10:46 pm GMT+7
Operation of Vietnam's retail giant Petrolimex 'still normal' despite CEO suspension
Petrolimex is operating normally despite the Ministry of Finance's (MoF) recent "temporary suspension" of its CEO Dao Nam Hai, says a corporate representative.
Companies - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 8:54 pm GMT+7
Initiative to position Malaysia as Southeast Asia’s digital hub
Malaysia is positioning itself as Southeast Asia's digital hub through its digital agenda program, a move aligned with the nation's transition towards a high-technology economy.
Southeast Asia - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 5:45 pm GMT+7
Central Vietnam province proposes including geothermal power project in national power plan
Authorities of Binh Dinh province have proposed the Ministry of Industry and Trade include the 15-megawatt Hoi Van geothermal power plant project in the revised National Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8).
Energy - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 4:56 pm GMT+7
Vietnam firms vow to intensify cooperation with US partners, facilitate country trade talks
Major Vietnamese enterprises have committed to intensifying cooperation with U.S. partners from now until June 2025 to realize signed agreements and MoU, paving the way for trade talks with the U.S.
Economy - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 4:19 pm GMT+7
Phu My Fertilizer becomes main sponsor of Vietnam Women’s Volleyball Team
PetroVietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation (PVFCCo – Phu My) has become the main sponsor of the Vietnam Women’s Volleyball Team, the firm announced in a Wednesday release.
Companies - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 4:15 pm GMT+7
AES earns $12 mln in Q1 pre-tax income from coal-fired power plant in Vietnam
U.S.-based energy giant AES Corporation earned a pre-tax income of $12 million from the Mong Duong 2 coal-fired power plant in Vietnam’s northern province of Quang Ninh in the first quarter of this year.
Companies - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 3:33 pm GMT+7
Vietnam insurer Pjico stock plummets amid insurance sector gains
Petrolimex Insurance Corporation (Pjico) saw its stock (HoSE: PGI) tumble nearly 6% on Wednesday, which contrasts with the broader insurance sector which posted solid gains of 1.77%, second only to telecommunications (2.54%).
Companies - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 3:21 pm GMT+7
Vietnam tech unicorn VNG reports loss for 7th straight quarter
VNG Corporation, Vietnam’s first tech unicorn, recorded a post-tax loss of VND15 billion ($577,723) in Q1, marking the seventh consecutive quarterly loss, according to its Snapshot Q1/2025.
Companies - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 12:01 pm GMT+7
Vietnam's government bond auctions raise $1.62 bln in April
The Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) held 20 government bond auctions on the primary market in April, raising over VND42.42 trillion ($1.62 billion), the bourse reported.
Finance - Thu, May 8, 2025 | 8:32 am GMT+7
Malaysia’s investment growth in 2025 faces challenges
In the context of global trade uncertainty, Malaysia may not achieve a hat-trick in approved investments this year after two straight years of record-high numbers.
Southeast Asia - Wed, May 7, 2025 | 10:59 pm GMT+7
Thaco seeks to remove obstacles to hotel, bauxite projects in Vietnam's Central Highlands
Thaco expects the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong to help the multi-industry corporation remove barriers to its hotel, bauxite, and aluminum projects in Da Lat town, said a company representative.
Industries - Wed, May 7, 2025 | 10:55 pm GMT+7
Q1 proves tough for Vietnam's oil and gas giants
Profits for major Vietnamese oil companies dropped significantly in Q1, as global oil prices plunged, driven by U.S. tax policy shifts and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Companies - Wed, May 7, 2025 | 5:06 pm GMT+7
How much is your identity worth?
With 87% of Vietnamese adults having bank accounts and approximately 95% of transactions conducted via online channels, how banks can protect their customers’ personal data has become important more than ever, writes Phillip Wright, chief operating officer at HSBC Vietnam.
Consulting - Wed, May 7, 2025 | 4:01 pm GMT+7