Vietnam 2023 economy to grow 7.2%: Standard Chartered

By Thuy Tuong
Fri, January 6, 2023 | 1:00 pm GMT+7

Standard Chartered Bank put its Vietnam GDP growth prediction at 7.2% for 2023 and 6.7% for 2024, following 8.02% in 2022.

Standard Chartered's 2023 forecast is higher than those of HSBC and Singapore’s United Overseas Bank, which are 5.8% and 6.62%, respectively.

"We still have conviction on Vietnam’s high growth potential over the medium term," Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at the bank, said in the report "Vietnam - Still enjoying high-growth status" released Friday.

"While macro indicators moderated somewhat in the fourth quarter of 2022, they remain largely robust. Retail sales posted solid growth in the second half of 2022, implying improved domestic activity," he added.

Exports is a major driving force of Vietnam's economy. Photo courtesy of VietnamNet newspaper.

Exports is a major driving force of Vietnam's economy. Photo courtesy of VietnamNet newspaper.

Vietnam’s trade balance has tentatively improved; exports may face global headwinds; and imports are at risk of reversal. FDI disbursements have continued to increase, but the outlook hinges on the global economy. Inflation may pose a threat to Vietnam’s continued recovery, Standard Chartered commented in the report.

"Inflation in the country is anticipated to rise throughout 2023, potentially reaching 6% in the final months of the year and averaging 5.5% in both 2023 and 2024, from 3.2% in 2022," Standard Chartered said . "Vietnam’s fiscal deficit may persist and be a source of inflation."

The bank expected the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to hike its interest rates by another one percentage point in this year’s first quarter and to stay on hold through the end of 2024.

Leelahaphan said, "We expect the central bank to stay vigilant against inflation, a weakening Vietnamese dong, and financial instability arising from risky loans in the real estate sector.

“The SBV may prefer a relatively strong Vietnamese dong, as long as it does not harm the country’s trade competitiveness.”

According to Leelahaphan, the Vietnamese currency has recovered sharply in recent weeks. However, the pace of its appreciation is likely to slow down, as several headwinds persist. The replenishment of Vietnam’s forex reserves is likely to be a key priority for its central bank. An improving current account backdrop and tourism recovery are likely to be supportive of the Vietnamese dong.

The USD/VND forex rate is forecast by Standard Chartered at 23,400 by the end of 2023 and 23,000 by the end of 2024.

In a report released Thursday, HSBC said it expects the SBV to slow its monetary tightening pace as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to slow and forex volatility has eased, though the Fed’s hiking cycle would be still underway.

The bank predicted the SBV to raise its refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points each in the first and second quarters of this year, taking the refinancing rate to 7.0% by mid-2023.

With last year’s 8.02% expansion, the highest in 12 years, Vietnam was one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies.

However, the high growth rate in 2022 is partly derived from the low growth base in the two pandemic years 2020-2021, at 2.91% and 2.58% respectively.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
U.S. Grains Council signs 5-year cooperation deal with Vietnam

U.S. Grains Council signs 5-year cooperation deal with Vietnam

The U.S. Grains Council (USGC) on Friday signed a five-year cooperation agreement with the Partnership for Sustainable Agriculture in Vietnam (PSAV), reaffirming its long-term commitment to Vietnam’s agricultural development.

Economy - Sun, June 8, 2025 | 5:13 pm GMT+7

Bamboo Capital announces senior personnel changes

Bamboo Capital announces senior personnel changes

Under a board of directors resolution effective last Friday, Vietnam's multi-sector conglomerate Bamboo Capital Group has a new deputy general director, while its first vice chairman Pham Minh Tuan resigned to focus on subsidiary Bamboo Energy.

Companies - Sun, June 8, 2025 | 4:05 pm GMT+7

Vietnam signs deals to import nearly $3 bln worth of US agricultural products

Vietnam signs deals to import nearly $3 bln worth of US agricultural products

Vietnamese businesses accompanying Minister of Agriculture and Environment Do Duc Duy on a six-day visit to the U.S. signed multiple agreements to import nearly $3 billion worth of American agricultural products, expanding bilateral cooperation in the agricultural sector.

Economy - Sun, June 8, 2025 | 10:33 am GMT+7

EPC contract signed for O Mon IV thermal power project in southern Vietnam

EPC contract signed for O Mon IV thermal power project in southern Vietnam

An EPC contract signing ceremony for the O Mon IV thermal power project in Can Tho city took place on Friday, at the headquarters of state-owned Petrovietnam - the investor.

Energy - Sun, June 8, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai ventures into mulberry cultivation, coffee production

Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai ventures into mulberry cultivation, coffee production

After overcoming two major obstacles - debt and accumulated losses - Vietnam's agri major Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC (HoSE: HAG) is charting a bold five-year strategic roadmap, introducing two new business segments: mulberry cultivation and coffee-tea production.

Companies - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 4:35 pm GMT+7

Stock trading accounts hit 10 mln in Vietnam

Stock trading accounts hit 10 mln in Vietnam

Vietnam recorded a large increase in the number of stock trading accounts in April and May, when the U.S. tariff turbulence caused strong market fluctuations.

Finance - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 3:38 pm GMT+7

Thailand’s SCG books $301 mln in Q1 sales from Vietnam

Thailand’s SCG books $301 mln in Q1 sales from Vietnam

Siam Cement Group (SCG) reported sales of VND7.77 trillion ($301 million) in Vietnam in Q1/2025, reflecting the country as a key market for the Thai conglomerate in Southeast Asia.

Companies - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 9:54 am GMT+7

Vietnam’s energy firm identifies 3 emissions violations among Vietnamese enterprises

Vietnam’s energy firm identifies 3 emissions violations among Vietnamese enterprises

Looking ahead, 2030 is a milestone year, as major global brands such as Unilever, Nestlé, H&M, and Nike have committed to cutting Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 50-65%, said Pham Dang An, CEO of Vu Phong Energy Group, a major developer of clean energy in Vietnam.

Companies - Sat, June 7, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7

Deal acquiring financial firm of Vietnam's SeABank invalid: Aeon Financial

Deal acquiring financial firm of Vietnam's SeABank invalid: Aeon Financial

Aeon Financial Service Co., Ltd. on Friday stated that its deal to purchase a financial company owned by Vietnam's SeABank is invalid due to "inappropriate accounting transactions."

Finance - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:57 pm GMT+7

VSAP LAB to build $69 mln chip packaging tech laboratory in central Vietnam

VSAP LAB to build $69 mln chip packaging tech laboratory in central Vietnam

Vietnamese private firm VSAP LAB JSC has been approved as the investor of a VND1.8 trillion ($69.11 million) advanced packaging technology laboratory project that will assist semiconductor production in the central city of Danang.

Industries - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 8:11 pm GMT+7

Vietnam's major property developer Hoang Huy successfully raises $30.7 mln from parent company

Vietnam's major property developer Hoang Huy successfully raises $30.7 mln from parent company

Hoang Huy Investment Services JSC (HoSE: HHS) has successfully issued 64 million shares for VND800 billion ($30.7 million) via private placement to its parent company – Hoang Huy Financial Services Investment JSC (TCH).

Companies - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 3:32 pm GMT+7

Subsidiaries, affiliates likely not to enjoy preferential corporate income tax in Vietnam

Subsidiaries, affiliates likely not to enjoy preferential corporate income tax in Vietnam

Subsidiaries and affiliates of enterprises in Vietnam might not be eligible for preferential corporate income tax (CIT) rates of 15-17%, in order to prevent abuse of incentives like splitting income for tax avoidance, according to the Financial and Economic Committee under the National Assembly, the country's legislature.

Finance - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 3:22 pm GMT+7

VPS Securities JSC named Vietnam’s best broker again by The Asset

VPS Securities JSC named Vietnam’s best broker again by The Asset

VPS Securities JSC (VPS) has once again been honored as the “Best Brokerage House in Vietnam” at the Triple A Awards 2025, presented by The Asset, a leading Asia-focused financial publication.

Companies - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:40 am GMT+7

Vietnam's agri major BAF eyes two 6-story buildings for pig farming in southern Vietnam

Vietnam's agri major BAF eyes two 6-story buildings for pig farming in southern Vietnam

BAF Vietnam Agriculture JSC has submitted a proposal to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to develop a smart pig farming complex including two six-story buildings in the southern provinces of Tay Ninh and Binh Phuoc.

Industries - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:20 am GMT+7

Food major Kido leaders reveal real estate ambitions

Food major Kido leaders reveal real estate ambitions

Leaders of Kido Group, a leading Vietnamese food and cooking oil producer, said they see many positive policies that are helping to ease real estate market difficulties and create favorable conditions for the company to develop projects on its land reserves.

Real Estate - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 11:03 am GMT+7

Indonesia accelerates procedures to join OECD

Indonesia accelerates procedures to join OECD

The Indonesian Government has finalised the preparation of the Initial Memorandum (IM) for its accession to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which will be submitted to OECD Secretary-General Matthias Cormann in Paris, France.

Southeast Asia - Fri, June 6, 2025 | 10:16 am GMT+7