Vietnam needs to invest VND12,338 trillion ($517 billion) in energy in the basic scenario for 2021-2050, including 2.8% for coal, 32.6% for oil-gas, and 64.6% for electricity, according to a draft plan on national energy in 2021-2030, with vision until 2050.
In particular, the country needs to invest VND3,855 trillion ($161.5 billion) in 2021-2030, or $16.6 billion a year, and then VND8,482 trillion in 2031-2050.
In the scenario of higher investment, the total figure is VND17,997 trillion ($754 billion), comprising 2.9% for coal, 31.1% for oil-gas, and 66% for electricity.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade, compiler of the plan, stresses a challenge of depleting resources for energy in Vietnam. It is estimated that the reserves of coal would deplete in 70 years, crude oil in 20 years, and natural gas in 40 years.
For the electricity sector, in 2025, the total capacity of power plants is estimated at 105,590-105,265 megawatts. Of which, hydropower accounts for 24.1-24.7%, coal-fired thermal power 28.2-28.9%, gas-fired power 13.4-13.7%, non-hydropower renewable energy 28.9-29.8%, and imported energy 3.7-4.5%.
The total produced and imported electricity is 378.3-381.3 billion kWh, of which the biggest portion of 40.5-42.4% is coal-fired power and the smallest, imported energy at 4.1-4.5%, while non-hydropower renewable energy accounts for 16.4-17.1%.
In 2045, the total capacity is likely to double or triple to 261,951-329,610 MW. Non-hydropower renewable energy makes up the largest portion of 40.1-40.7%. Imported energy accounts for 3.3%.
The total produced and imported electricity is 997-1,213.1 billion kWh, of which coal-fired and gas-fired thermal power play the biggest roles at 27.4-32.4% and 28.4-33.1% of the output, followed by non-hydropower renewable energy at 26.5-28.4%. Imported energy accounts for 3.05-3.1%.
About the zero-emission commitment, the ministry said energy transition into gas-fired power and renewable energy is the solution. To facilitate the move, the country has to quicken the import of 8.4-11.5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2030 and 16.5-20.2 billion cubic meters in 2045.