Opportunities outnumber challenges, Vietnam set for FDI surge: Dragon Capital

With more opportunities than challenges, Vietnam is expected to receive increased direct and indirect foreign investment this year, said Dang Nguyet Minh, head researcher at leading investment firm Dragon Capital.

Joining a panel at the Vietnam Economic Scenarios forum in Hanoi Thursday, Minh pointed out two big opportunities for the country.

First, for the manufacturing sector, after a difficult year when the whole world was destocking, inventory levels are returning to sustainable levels in Europe and the U.S. as well as with retailers globally.

“Considering these developments, we anticipate Vietnam’s manufacturing has bottomed out, and that 2024 will be a year of economic recovery,” Minh noted.

Second, there has been a convergence in interest rate cuts globally. She explained that in November, for the first time, more central banks around the world reduced interest rates than raised them. In an economy, interest rates are the foundation for investment and growth. Vietnam was ahead in cutting interest rates but a global sync is even more important, she said.

Mentioning three main economic drivers, Minh said the export sector has hit the bottom and entered a new recovery phase. The government has been aggressively pushing public investment, helping rebuild business confidence. Meanwhile, consumption is expected to rebound even more strongly in the second half of this year when effects from rate cuts are felt.

Minh mentioned four global investment areas with opportunities – clean energy, artificial intelligence and semiconductors, electric vehicles and biotechnology.

In Vietnam, clean energy has become popular while the remaining three are yet to get due attention, especially in terms of mechanisms and policies. Therefore, there are plenty of opportunities for Vietnam to cash in on new growth drivers in the years ahead.

Minh also said that Vietnam was in a good position to accommodate supply chain shifts as multinational companies take on their “China plus 1” strategy.

Since 2014, Vietnam has become a destination for “queen bee” companies such as Apple, LG, Samsung and Foxconn, she noted.

“However, to make Vietnam a manufacturing hub, we need to develop a full-fledged ecosystem for those companies. In addition, small and medium foreign companies need more support in terms of capital and workforce training [from the Vietnamese government].”