PYN Elite manager upbeat about Vietnam’s economy, stock market despite Trump uncertainty

The Vietnamese economy will still fare well, and the local stock market will remain appealing despite the recent pullback following Donald Trump’s election win for a second term, said Petri Deryng, portfolio manager of Finland-based the PYN Elite fund.

The weeks following Trump's election victory have brought an unwelcomed wave of selling in emerging markets, marking the third consecutive week of outflows, said Deryng in a Thursday note.

The strengthened U.S. dollar has drawn money from markets like Asia to the U.S. At the same time, Trump's threat of import tariffs has made emerging market investors uncertain about the extent to which such tariffs could slow global trade in growing emerging economies.

Furthermore, the expectation of accelerating inflation due to tariff policies has dampened hopes of interest rate cuts, weakening Asian currencies relative to the dollar.

For a fast-growing economy like Vietnam, uncertainty is a threat. However, even more significant positive developments are simultaneously occurring in Vietnam's domestic economy, and the Vietnamese stock market is explicitly dominated by companies driven by domestic demand in Vietnam.

Key changes were made in Vietnam's political leadership last summer, and it is now evident that the new regime and the government are ramping up efforts to boost Vietnam's economic growth. The current leadership is even more focused on economic reforms than its predecessor, and decisions are being made accordingly.

Potential Trump tariffs could hinder the growth of several foreign-owned export companies operating in Vietnam. However, these companies are not listed on Vietnam's stock exchange. A slowdown in export growth could reduce Vietnam's economic growth by 0.5-1.0 percentage points in the coming years, but at the same time, domestic market demand is accelerating strength, allowing Vietnam's GDP growth to remain in the 6-7% range for 2025.

Notably, these export companies' sources or funding are not related to Vietnamese banks, and the strengthening domestic demand is set to lead Vietnamese banks into a strong performance in 2025.

Vietnam's equity market also covers some export-oriented companies, such as Vinh Hoan Corp (HoSE: VHC), which is in PYN Elite's portfolio. VHC's main market is the U.S., where it exports pangasius fish fillets. China competes in the same market with tilapia fish fillets.

If Trump’s threatened tariffs are implemented as proposed, Chinese products would face a 60% tariff, while products from other countries would only face a 10% tariff. This would provide VHC with a significant boost in its U.S. exports as Chinese products become less competitive.

Vietnamese listed companies’ earnings growth is expected to be around 20% in 2024, with similar growth anticipated in 2025. The stock market was moderately valued even before the recent pullback, with a 2025 forward P/E of 10x.

“The situation is not in any way alarming, although the recent pullback is disappointing. Recent market conditions have allowed us to take actions for portfolio reallocations to take advantage of the occurred market fluctuations,” concluded Deryng.

PYN Elite is among the most active foreign-run funds in Vietnam. As of October 31, its net asset value was €476.5 million ($511 million), while assets under management totaled €815.2 million ($874.12 million).

It recorded returns of negative 1.7% month-on-month in October, the first decline since May. However, its performance was positive 18.54% in January-October.

Since the start of this year, it has recorded returns of 12%, outpacing a 7% increase of the benchmark VN-Index due to a pullback in recent weeks.

Foreign-run fund manager VinaCapital reckoned earlier this month that there is no risk that Trump’s election will derail Vietnam’s healthy economic trajectory and Trump’s tariff threat has been overblown.

KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) projected that more companies from U.S. allies and elsewhere may move more production facilities to Vietnam in the coming years.

However, VinaCapital warned that Vietnam’s massive trade surplus with the U.S. could become an issue under Trump’s second administration.