Real estate prices likely to drop 30%: economist

By Thai Ha
Sun, August 7, 2022 | 7:29 pm GTM+7

Real estate prices might decline by a maximum 30% in the coming time, but will quickly rebound, according to Le Xuan Nghia, one of Vietnam's leading economists.

Nghia told a forum on second-half property market trends Friday that real estate over the past two years have been mostly traded by investors, with purchases by actual users accounting for about 0.03%.

"Meanwhile, the corporate bond issuance market, a critical channel for mobilizing long and medium term capital, has been frozen."

Le Xuan Nghia, former vice head of the National Financial Supervisory Commission. Photo courtesy of VnEconomy newspaper.

Le Xuan Nghia, former vice head of the National Financial Supervisory Commission. Photo courtesy of VnEconomy newspaper.

"I believe the projection has grounds to be correct. The economic crisis in 2008 made the price of real estate plunge by up to 60-70%. But the economy is currently much stronger, with macroeconomic stability, low inflation, high GDP growth, stable exchange rates, and slight increase in interest rates," said Nghia, former vice head of the National Financial Supervisory Commission.

Nguyen Van Dinh, vice chairman of the Vietnam Association of Realtors, predicted price reductions would be seen only in segments that had prices inflated. For segments that cater to practical needs, the price cuts are not likely due to supply shortages.

According to the association, in the first six months this year, real estate prices continuously increased. The market structure was strongly inclined toward speculative, high-priced real estate. Money flow was strong for shelter and speculation, more than for real demand. There was a strong dissociation between land and apartment prices.

In the last six months of the year, Dinh said the real estate market would go through a period of rebalancing.

"House prices will come under upward pressure due to rising costs, inflation, high housing demand, and low supply. Liquidity will decrease, and cash flow easily disappear. Investors tend to give cash flow a break and become more cautious," he told the forum.

Phan Xuan Can, chairman of Soho Vietnam Company, said that from the beginning of the year until now, when credit and real estate corporate bond markets have been tightened up, real estate prices stagnated or dropped. "Developers focused on paying for bonds while selling volume is slow, with prices leveled and decreased."

"Currently, projects are under review, with many stalled due to a lack of legal documents, so there is a shortage of supply, especially in large and vibrant markets like Ho Chi Minh City, Danang, Nha Trang, and Hanoi," he said.

Regarding the prospects in the last six months of the year, Can said real estate may decrease in price in the coming time as many home owners are under pressure to pay bank interest. However, according to Can, the real estate price reduction would only be 10-15% because the current price base is "pretty solid".

"Real estate investors need to have a longer-term vision, up to 10-20 years, not 3-5 years, because given the population growth and the rising interest of foreign investors, Vietnam's real estate market still has a lot of potential for development compared to other countries."

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Dollar up again after slight drop

Dollar up again after slight drop

The dollar at commercial banks has risen against the Vietnamese dong after a slight decrease late last week.

Banking - Mon, September 26, 2022 | 11:05 am GTM+7

Vietnam offers region’s lowest solar energy costs: renewables body

Vietnam offers region’s lowest solar energy costs: renewables body

Vietnam has the lowest levelized cost of solar energy in Southeast Asia, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says in its latest major energy-transition publication.

Energy - Mon, September 26, 2022 | 9:58 am GTM+7

Three military airports may include civilian operations: Deputy PM

Three military airports may include civilian operations: Deputy PM

The government is considering turning three military airports in Ninh Thuan, Dong Nai and Hanoi into military-civil airports.

Infrastructure - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 8:42 pm GTM+7

Heineken opens Southeast Asia’s biggest brewery in southern Vietnam

Heineken opens Southeast Asia’s biggest brewery in southern Vietnam

Heineken Vietnam inaugurated an expanded brewery in Ba Ria-Vung Tau province Saturday, saying it was the the biggest in Southeast Asia and used 100% renewable energy.

Industries - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 8:12 pm GTM+7

Agriculture major Hoang Anh Gia Lai suspends $72 mln share issuance

Agriculture major Hoang Anh Gia Lai suspends $72 mln share issuance

Hoang Anh Gia Lai JSC (HAGL) has suspended registration documents for a private placement of shares worth VND1,700 billion ($71.7 million) that it had submitted to the State Securities Commission.

Companies - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 5:42 pm GTM+7

Three Vietnamese carriers among world's top 100 airlines

Three Vietnamese carriers among world's top 100 airlines

Vietnam Airlines, Bamboo Airways and Vietjet Air have been honored with titles in different categories by UK-based air transport rating organization Skytrax.

Travel - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 3:53 pm GTM+7

Northern, central provinces prepare for supertyphoon Noru arrival

Northern, central provinces prepare for supertyphoon Noru arrival

Northern and central provinces have been told to prepare for supertyphoon Noru, which is heading in a northwest direction with wind speeds of up to 183 km per hour.

Society - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 3:35 pm GTM+7

Expensive HCMC apartments in large supply

Expensive HCMC apartments in large supply

More and more luxury and high-end apartment projects have appeared in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s southern economic hub, with prices exceeding VND200 million ($8,400) per square meter in some cases.

Real Estate - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 10:12 am GTM+7

HCMC anti-smuggling cop in the dock for smuggling

HCMC anti-smuggling cop in the dock for smuggling

Hoang Duy Tien faces prosecution for overseeing the smuggling of goods worth VND211 billion ($8.9 million) when he was an officer with the HCMC economic police division.

Society - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 8:34 am GTM+7

Long Thanh Airport police station opens on construction site

Long Thanh Airport police station opens on construction site

A police station has been set up at the Long Thanh International Airport construction site in Dong Nai province to ensure security and traffic safety.

Society - Sun, September 25, 2022 | 8:18 am GTM+7

Work begins on HCMC Ring Road 3 section

Work begins on HCMC Ring Road 3 section

Construction began Saturday on an 8.7-kilometer section of Ho Chi Minh City's Ring Road 3 that is set for completion in three years.

Infrastructure - Sat, September 24, 2022 | 9:07 pm GTM+7

VN-Index loses 31 points in week of US interest rate hike

VN-Index loses 31 points in week of US interest rate hike

Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index decreased to the area close to 1,200 points at the end of this week, down 31 points following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s mid-week interest rate hike of 75 percentage points.

Finance - Sat, September 24, 2022 | 5:02 pm GTM+7

Four Phu Quoc Island hotels win best titles in Asia

Four Phu Quoc Island hotels win best titles in Asia

Four hotels on Phu Quoc Island, namely Novotel, Pullman, New World and JW Marriott, were honored Thursday at Haute Grandeur Global Hotel Awards with titles in different categories.

Travel - Sat, September 24, 2022 | 4:18 pm GTM+7

European training for Vietnam football talents

European training for Vietnam football talents

Phat Dat Real Estate Development Corporation has become a key sponsor of a strategic cooperation in developing young football talents in Vietnam.

Companies - Sat, September 24, 2022 | 3:44 pm GTM+7

Deposit rates surge after central bank raises rate ceiling

Deposit rates surge after central bank raises rate ceiling

A slew of small- and medium-size commercial banks have hiked their deposit interest rates by 0.3-1 percentage points after the State Bank of Vietnam raised the deposit rate ceiling Friday.

Banking - Sat, September 24, 2022 | 3:10 pm GTM+7

Remove bottlenecks, facilitate FDI flows among Mekong Subregion: experts

Remove bottlenecks, facilitate FDI flows among Mekong Subregion: experts

Greater awareness of the opportunities and required policy support are key to expanding the scale, quality and speed of foreign investment in the Mekong Subregion, experts say.

Economy - Sat, September 24, 2022 | 1:24 pm GTM+7