UOB's latest USD/VND projections for 2026 are 26,300 in Q1, 26,100 in Q2

Analysts at Singaporean bank UOB say they maintain a cautious stance on the Vietnamese dong (VND) and their updated USD/VND forecasts for next year are at 26,300 in Q1, 26,100 in Q2, 26,000 in Q3, and 25,900 in Q4.

Looking ahead to 2026, they expect the VND to continue underperforming regional peers despite a broadly softer USD backdrop.

"The VND is on track to finish weaker against the USD for the fourth consecutive year," the wrote in a release on Monday.

While tariff-related uncertainties weighed on sentiment, stronger-than-expected GDP growth helped limit losses, keeping the year-to-date depreciation at a modest 3.5%, broadly in line with prior years.

Volatility remained contained, supported by the SBV holding its benchmark rate steady at 4.5% throughout the year and deploying FX interventions to smooth market fluctuations.

The State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate at 25,146 VND/USD on Tuesday, down VND3 from the previous day. With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is 26,403 VND/USD, while the floor rate is 23,889.

At 9:45 a.m. Tuesday, the buying rate at Vietcombank was 26,123 VND/USD and the selling rate 26,403 VND/USD, both down VND3 from Monday.

At Vietinbank, the buying and selling rates were 26,138 VND/USD and 26,403 VND/USD, up VND163 and down VND3, respectively.

For SeABank, the respective figures were 26,123 VND/USD and 26,403 VND/USD, both down VND3 from Tuesday.

Vietcombank and Vietinbank are state-controlled banks and among the Top 4 Vietnamese banks, while SeABank is a private bank. The above figures refer to payments via bank transfer, instead of cash.

Keeping the playbook of a weaker USD In 2026

For 2026, UOB analysts maintain a bearish bias on the USD, with further Fed easing expected to remain the dominant driver.

"Political risk could re-emerge as a key USD-negative factor in the coming months. With Chair Powell’s term as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chair expiring in May 2026, markets may begin to price in the possibility that his successor aligns more closely with the Trump administration’s preference for lower rates," they wrote.

Such a scenario would reinforce expectations for a lower terminal Fed Funds Rate, translating into sustained USD weakness. UOB's latest DXY forecasts stand at 98.2 for Q1/2026, 97.3 in Q2, 96.5 in Q3, and 95.7 by Q4.

"That said, the pace of depreciation may be tempered by sticky inflation – still above the Fed’s 2% target – and late-cycle dynamics, including a well-priced OIS curve. Consequently, we maintain our positive outlook for the other Majors against the USD, and expect EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY to end Q4/2026 at 1.20, 1.37, 0.69 and 146 respectively," they added.

SBV to hold rates steady amid resilient economic growth

Vietnam’s inflation rate has yet to show a meaningful slowdown. Year-to-date headline inflation rate hit 3.3% in Octover, vs average of 3.6% in 2024 and 3.26% in 2023. Main drivers continue to be costs of housing & construction materials (6.2% year-on-year average year to date; 18.8% weight) and health care (17% year-on-year average year to date; 5.4% weight).

Combined with the potential for decent growth prospects going into 2026 and persistent VND weakness, these factors would constrain the SBV’s ability to ease policy. As such, UOB analysts expect the central bank to keep its refinancing rate steady at 4.5%.

An outstanding year but momentum to slow ahead

Vietnam’s performance in Q3/2025 came in at the strongest since the post-Covid rebound in Q3/2022, with real GDP growth surging 8.23% year-on-year following 8.19% pace in Q2/2025. This was underpinned by resilient exports and production, despite headwinds from U.S. tariffs.

Due to a high base in Q4/2024, UOB analysts anticipate the final quarter would be a challenge given a backdrop of tariffs and trade frictions. As such, they anticipate Vietnam’s Q4/2025 growth to slow to 7.2% year-on-year, for a full-year expansion of 7.7%.

It would be even more daunting to achieve the official 8.3-8.5% projection, which would require Q4/2025 expansion in the range of 9.7-10.5% year-on-year.

For 2026, Vietnam’s growth pace could moderate slightly to 7% due to base effects and dissipation of frontloading, the bank's analysts predicted.

The National Assembly, Vietnam's legislature, on November 12 approved a resolution setting an economic expansion target of at least 10% for 2026, per capita GDP at $5,400-5,500, and inflation controlled at around 4.5%.

The government aims to enlarge the national economy by 8.3-8.5% for 2025. GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months. The figure was the second-highest levels in 11 years, except for 2023 which saw a strong surge post the pandemic.

Standard Chartered in late October raised its Vietnam GDP growth forecast to 7.5% for 2025 from the previous 6.1%, and to 7.2% for 2026 from 6.2%, following HSBC's revising up its prediction to 7.9% (from 6.6%) and 6.7% (from 5.8%), respectively.