Rocky year for Vietnam realty market

Vietnam’s real estate market experienced fluctuations and woes in 2022, and many companies in the industry were forced to restructure by cutting costs and staff.

The year started with a post-pandemic economic rebound in the country as well as signs of a recovery in the industry. However, the market began to stagnate in the second quarter.

This was followed by the government tightening policies on credit supply and corporate bond issuance, which led to a gloomy market picture for the rest of the year.

Therefore, real estate companies have been struggling with limited access to capital while buyers and investors have tended to delay purchases.

Transactions drop drastically

A report by Vietnamese realty platform Batdongsan.com.vn shows that in the first and second quarters, Ho Chi Minh City had nearly 14,000 new apartments for sale, and trading reached 70-80% of these supply.

During the third quarter, the whole market had only about 1,250 units on offer, and trading fell to under 52%. The city had only 450 apartments for primary sale in the final quarter and consumption reached about 25%, with around 100 apartments traded.

Dinh Minh Tuan, the southern region's director at the platform, said weak purchasing in the apartment sector in southern Vietnam, including HCMC, worsened in the second half.

“This is the first time we've faced this situation in the past five years. Normally, the later months are the peak time for transactions, but not this year. To stimulate demand, many firms have offered discounts of 40-50% of product value,” he said.

Vo Hong Thang, deputy director of research and development at DKRA Group, said the market is falling into a state of "hibernation" as both supply and demand have continuously recorded sharp decreases since the middle of the second quarter, and the downtrend has shown no signs of stopping.

Developers unable to sell

Thang said the State Bank of Vietnam had since mid-April tightened control of credit supply in real estate, including corporate bonds, leaving most real estate firms facing limited sources of capital.

With capital mobilization an obstacle, the key task for the companies now is to survive. Both developers and brokers must undergo restructuring as well as cut costs and headcounts as the industry awaits government support measures.

A survey by Batdongsan.com.vn shows that 61% of realty trading floors surveyed said they had reduced staff size, 31% remained the same, and 8% increased. Some other measures used by real estate businesses included debt restructuring and rescheduling or paying bondholders with real estate products, together with increasing discounts for buyers.

Supply-demand gap

The market’s supply-demand mismatch continued in 2022. For example, affordable housing products with reasonable prices for a majority of customers were undersupplied, but there was an oversupply in the luxury segments.

Segment disparity

According to HCMC Department of Construction data, 25 residential projects in the city were eligible to mobilize capital for development in 2022, with a total of 12,147 apartments and houses. However, the high-end segment made up 78.3% of the total, and the mid-end segment accounted for 21.7%, leaving 0% for the budget segment.

Across 2022, the city completed just one social housing project, with nine others under construction. For three consecutive years, social housing supply has been limited while the two higher-end segments have been overwhelming, according to the department’s data.

Prices still on the rise

Housing prices have continued to rise over the past five years, according to the HCMC Real Estate Association (HoREA). The highest unit price for affordable housing stands at about VND2 billion ($84,620), which is around 20 times higher than the annual income of an average Vietnamese worker.

A report by Batdongsan.com.vn shows that apartment prices in both Hanoi and HCMC are on the rise. In Hanoi, prices of mid-end and high-end apartments increased by 7-13% compared to the beginning of the year, and prices of affordable apartments rose by 2-4%. By and large, price hikes in HCMC were lower than in Hanoi.

Government support

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on November 17 established a working group to solve these issues and remove obstacles for the implementation of real estate projects nationwide.

The task force is responsible for helping the government to solve problems within government power. As for problems beyond this remit, the team is supposed to advise the PM on reporting them to competent authorities.

In December 2022, the PM gave instructions to alleviate problems facing the Vietnamese real estate market.

According to the Ministry of Construction, more than 1,000 projects nationwide are currently facing obstacles.