Standard Chartered raises Vietnam growth forecast as economic momentum strengthens

Standard Chartered has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam to 9.5%, bringing it closer to the government's target of "at least 10%" and reflecting strong economic momentum and supportive policy environment.

In a release on Monday, the bank said it expects the positive momentum to extend into next year, with GDP growth forecast at 11% in 2027.

Earlier this year, it had forecast the Southeast Asian country's GDP growth at 6.7-7% during the 2026-2030 period.

Standard Chartered has lowered its inflation forecasts to 4.4% for 2026 and 3.3% for 2027, reflecting an improving inflation outlook.

The creditor expects the policy rate to remain unchanged, reflecting the authorities' efforts to balance growth objectives with inflation management.

Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered, said: “Vietnam's economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience in the first half of 2026, supported by stronger-than-expected growth across manufacturing, services and investment activity, alongside continued policy support.”

“While global uncertainties and inflationary pressures remain factors to monitor, Vietnam enters the second half of the year from a position of strength. Strong domestic demand, continued investment in infrastructure and productive capacity, and ongoing economic transformation are helping to create a more balanced and resilient growth model that can support Vietnam's long-term development ambitions,” he added.

Meanwhile, in its July 2026 Asian Development Outlook (ADO) update, the ADB maintained its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth at 7.2% in 2026 and 7% in 2027 - the highest rates projected by the organization among developing economies in Southeast Asia.

Vietnam's GDP grew an estimated 8.39% in the second quarter from a year earlier, lifting first-half economic expansion to 8.18%. The first-half growth rate exceeded the 7.63% recorded in the same period last year, the National Statistics Office reported.

Given the GDP figure for the first six months, the government has set a target of 11.9% economic growth for the second half to achieve its goal of expanding GDP by at least 10% for the full year, according to a government resolution issued on June 27.

The target was outlined in Resolution 168, which updates the country's growth scenario and sets out key policy measures for the remainder of the year while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

Previously, on April 24, the National Assembly - the country's legislature - set a 2026-2030 agenda targeting at least 10% average annual GDP growth.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index posted 51.8 in June, down from 52.8 in May but still above the 50.0 no-change mark, reflecting an improvement in the health of the sector.

Business conditions have now strengthened on a monthly basis throughout the past year, S&P Global stated in a release on July 1.