Thailand faces risk of credit downgrade

The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) has called on the government to urgently take measures to strengthen the country's economy, addressing three weaknesses identified by leading economists that could lead to a downgrade of its credit rating.

Last week, Siam Commercial Bank Economic Intelligence Centre (SCB EIC) forecast that Thailand’s credit rating could be reduced from the current BBB+ level as the country is displaying three weaknesses.

The first is the country's low per capita income and demographic structure, which are slowing economic growth. The second is high debts of the private sector, and the third is the continuing increase in government debt and fiscal deficit.

The EIC noted that the three problems are weakening the kingdom’s fiscal policies, resulting in an increasing public debt-to-GDP ratio, which is in contrast with other countries in the region that have successfully reduced the debt ratio since the Covid-19 pandemic.

TCC chairman Sanan Angubolkul said to prevent the credit rating from being slashed, the government should implement measures to bolster the economic strength in two areas.

The first is ensuring an effective and efficient use of fiscal policy and budgets to stimulate the economy. In addition to the THB10,000 ($298) handout scheme that has already been implemented, the TCC suggested additional measures such as co-payment shopping schemes and other tax measures that do not require budget expenditure to increase people’s purchasing power.

The second is strengthening political stability, which is one of the key factors supporting the economic system and investors’ confidence.

Sanan highlighted the need to preemptively prevent the credit rating from being slashed, as a lowered rating would affect the confidence of foreign investors, triggering the outflow of funds in the capital and bond markets, and eventually decreasing the country’s financial liquidity.

Earlier this month, the World Bank revised the forecast for Thailand's GDP growth in 2024 and 2025 down to 2.4% and 3.0% respectively, from the earlier projections of 2.8% and 3% made in April.