UOB forecasts USD price at VND26,100 in Q2, VND26,300 in Q3

Singaporean bank UOB's updated forecasts on the price of USD against the Vietnamese dong (VND) are 26,100 in Q2/2025, 26,300 in Q3, 26,000 in Q4, and 25,800 in Q1/2026.

The VND was the outlier to the strong regional FX recovery in April, with the currency falling 1.6% on the month to 25,990 per USD, it said in a release on Monday.

"Markets probably weighed the economic fallout on Vietnam due to the prohibitive 46% tariff – second highest after China globally – that the U.S. slapped on Vietnamese goods from July," UOB explained the VND depreciation in April.

President Trump on April 2 said that he would levy massive 46% tariffs on imports from Vietnam as part of a new wave of global impositions. On April 9, he dropped his reciprocal tariffs for countries reaching out to the U.S. to negotiate to 10% for 90 days.

The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped back below the 50.0 no change mark in April, after having signalled growth for the first time in four months during March.

The index plummeted to a two-year low of 45.6, reflecting the caution amongst factories as they grappled with the prospect that Vietnamese products lose its price competitiveness in the U.S., its largest export market.

"Absent a trade deal with the U.S., we think the VND will likely be tethered at the weaker end of its trading band against the USD," UOB added.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week described the ongoing trade talks with Vietnam and other countries as “fruitful”.

The State Bank of Vietnam, the country's central bank, on Tuesday set the daily reference exchange rate at 24,973 VND/USD, up VND28 from Monday.

With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is 26,222 VND/USD and the floor rate 23,724 VND/USD.

Vietcombank at 4:10 p.m. on Tuesday listed the buying rate at 25,780 VND/USD and selling rate at 26,140 VND/USD, unchanged from Monday.

Vietinbank's figures are VND25,776 and VND26,136 respectively, up VND171 and down VND9.

The tallies for Sacombank were VND25,777 and VND26,137 respectively, down VND8 in both directions.

Vietcombank and Vietinbank, both state-controlled banks, are among the top 4 Vietnamese banks, while Sacombank is a private bank. The above figures refer to payments via bank transfer, instead of cash.

Many experts believe that the SBV will confront difficulties in monetary policy management in 2025 as VND devaluation pressure will be strong.

The Vietnamese government has raised its 2025 GDP growth target to at least 8% (from 6.5-7%), with a higher inflation expectation of 4.5-5% to create room for monetary policy flexibility.

UOB in its Monday release said that it maintains its view that the USD will continue to weaken against other major currencies. This will result in the USD Index (DXY) entering a new trading range below 100 and falling further towards 96.9 by Q1/2026.

"Concurrently, our updated forecast sees EUR/USD and GBP/USD, rising further to 1.17,1.39 by Q1/2026," it wrote.

"As for the AUD, its “v-shaped” rebound may have been overextended and we see a more limited gain to 0.66 by Q1/2026," the bank noted.

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) milder rate hiking path will see a more modest appreciation trajectory of the JPY to 140 against the USD by Q1/2026, it added.