StanChart adjusts USD/VND exchange rate forecast amid changing economic trends

Standard Chartered Bank has adjusted its USD/VND exchange rate forecast, reflecting shifts in global and regional economic conditions.

Specifically, it has raised its mid-year projection to VND26,000 (previously VND25,450) per U.S. dollar and its end-2025 projection to VND25,700 (previously VND25,000), the lender said in its latest macroeconomic update released on Wednesday.

The Vietnamese dong (VND) has remained in line with broader trends in emerging market Asian currencies (EM-Asia FX) over the past three years, influenced by a strong U.S. dollar environment.

While market volatility has remained low, external factors such as evolving trade dynamics and global economic conditions may continue to shape currency movements, the bank explained.

The State Bank of Vietnam, the country's central bank, on Thursday set the daily reference exchange rate at 24,846 VND/USD, down VND5 from Wednesday.

With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is 26,088 VND/USD and the floor rate 23,604 VND/USD.

Vietcombank at 9:15 p.m. on Thursday listed the buying rate at 25,390 VND/USD and selling rate at 25,750 VND/USD, unchanged from Wednesday.

Vietinbank raised the USD price to VND25,418 and VND25,778 respectively, down VND178 and up VND42, respectively.

The figures for VPBank were VND25,435 and VND25,760 respectively, up VND5 in both directions.

Vietcombank and Vietinbank, both state-controlled banks, are among the top 4 Vietnamese banks, while VPBank is a leading private bank. The above figures refer to payments via bank transfer, instead of cash.

Many experts believe that the SBV will confront difficulties in monetary policy management in 2025 as VND devaluation pressure will be strong.

The Vietnamese government has raised its 2025 growth target to at least 8% (from 6.5-7%), with a higher inflation expectation of 4.5-5% to create room for monetary policy flexibility.

The stronger growth outlook could help sustain low interest rates in the short term. However, Standard Chartered expects the SBV to raise interest rates by 50 bps in Q2/2025 in response to rising inflation.

“We stay cautious on the near-term economic outlook and await more details on U.S. trade policies, given Vietnam’s large trade surplus with the US. In response, Vietnam has indicated its willingness to import more US agricultural products, among other items,” said Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist for Thailand and Vietnam at the bank.