Vietnam benchmark VN-Index will increase beyond investors' imagination: exec

VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, will increase beyond all scenarios in the most imaginative minds of investors, said La Giang Trung, CEO of the Hanoi-based Passion Investment.

In a status posted on his personal Facebook page on Saturday, Trung wrote that the global financial market is in a easing cycle when the Fed signaled that it could continue to cut interest rates in September this year, restarting the continued monetary easing after nearly a year of stopping.

Meanwhile, given the government's goal of strong GDP growth for this year (8.3-8.5%), the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is providing maximum pro-growth suppor through loosening the monetary policy.

"In this context, the most important thing to monitor in the stock market is not the short-term fluctuations of the index, but the cash flow participating in the market, the liquidity of the market," he wrote.

The phrase "Don't fight the Fed" coined by Martin Zweig in the 1970s is still valid today: the Fed's monetary policy - raising or lowering interest rates, tightening or loosening - is the key factor that guides the market, according to Trung.

Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller repeatedly emphasized that liquidity is the main driving force affecting stock prices and it is more important than corporate business results, he noted.

The executive believes that when the Fed and a series of central banks around the world are pumping money, while domestically, the SBV is easing to the maximum and this roadmap will last for at least another year, capital flows will flow strongly into asset channels, including stocks.

"Reality has proven that in 2022, when the Fed tightened, the VN-Index fell sharply from the 1,500 zone to around 900 points. On the contrary, both the Fed and the SBV are currently loosening and pumping money aggressively, which will create a long-term and strong upward trend. In this uptrend, stocks and risky assets generally benefit, while investors holding cash are the ones whose purchasing power is "eroded" by asset inflation."

Compared to the 2020-2021 period, the cash flow participating in the Vietnamese stock market is even stronger, while market valuations are still not as high. In the 2020 period, the average daily trading value reached its highest level of more than VND11,000 billion ($418,170) in December 2020.

Currently, the average daily trading value in August 2025 has increased to more than 48,000 billion ($1.82 billion). If compared in terms of time, August 2025 will be relatively equal to December 2020 in terms of time cycle, valuation, market fluctuations, and fluctuations of each stock class.

"The important thing now is to look at the big picture, the long-term trend. When liquidity is still pumped strongly, the market still has room to go up. The detailed story of each stock or fluctuations of a few dozen points in the short term will not change the long-term trend. Cash flow and liquidity are 2-3 times higher than the previous cycle of 2020-2021, the market valuation has only gone half way compared to the previous cycle, so how much will the VN-Index go up in this uptrend cycle?", Trung wrote.

And the answer given by CEO Passion Investment is that the VN-Index "will increase beyond all scenarios in the most imaginative imagination of investors".