Over $1.1 bln in foreign capital to flow into Vietnamese stocks if market status upgraded: broker

Nearly $1.15 billion in foreign capital is forecast to flow into seven key stocks if Vietnam’s stock market status is successfully upgraded from “frontier” to “emerging”.

These stocks include VIC of Vietnam’s largest private conglomerate Vingroup, VCB of Vietcombank, VHM of real estate major Vinhomes, HPG of steel giant Hoa Phat, FPT of tech giant FPT Corp., VNM of top dairy producer Vinamilk, and MSN of leading retailer Masan.

According to the July 2025 macroeconomic and market report recently released by Bao Viet Securities (BVSC), the Vietnamese stock market is poised to welcome a massive influx of foreign capital.

It anticipated that the FTSE’s market classification announcement on October 7 will have a positive impact on many stocks. Notably, billions of USD in foreign capital could be channeled into the market via exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track FTSE indices.

Specifically, VIC is expected to attract $311 million, followed by VHM with $203 million, HPG $183 million, FPT $153 million, and MSN $106 million. Meanwhile, VCB and VNM are also expected to receive substantial inflows of $99 million and $88 million, respectively.

BVSC also noted that several domestic factors remain supportive, including low interest rates, policies aimed at boosting credit, infrastructure investment, and public spending - all of which support businesses and domestic capital flows.

Additionally, the 20% reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. on Vietnam is not considered unfavorable compared to other countries, helping to maintain the competitiveness of Vietnamese exports. Stronger investor confidence driven by improved global stability will help retain capital in the domestic stock market.

In July, the VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), saw market liquidity surge, with average daily trading value reaching VND39.94 trillion ($1.52 billion), up 68.31% from June. Foreign investors also returned to net buying. All of which are seen as positive indicators for August and beyond.

BVSC expected companies to gradually adapt to the new tariff environment. Export-oriented sectors such as textiles, wood, and seafood may see weaker profit growth in the second half of 2025. However, indirectly affected sectors like banking and consumer goods are expected to benefit from government policies that aim to stimulate domestic economic growth.

Following the release of Q2 earnings reports, the broker believed the market will see divergence, with capital flowing into industries that stand to benefit from supportive policies and new tariff rates.

At Thursday’s close, the VN-Index closed 29 points higher than the reference level to 1,640.7 points, marking its new record high and the strongest gain in a week. The trading volume on the HoSE hit VND52.5 trillion ($2 billion).

Foreign investors increased their net selling pressure, with a total net outflow of approximately VND2.37 trillion ($90.24 million). This marked the sixth consecutive session of heavy foreign net selling, with strong sell-offs in stocks such as HPG, FPT, SSI of Saigon Securities, CTG of VietinBank, and MSN.