Vietnam bourses expected to rally in second half of 2023

By Khanh An, Van Truong
Wed, May 3, 2023 | 9:38 am GMT+7

The Vietnamese stock market is forecast to rally in the second half of 2023 after a quiet start to the year, with investment expected to flow into firms with a positive growth outlook.

The stock market rebounded in January but faced heavier pressure in February and March amid stronger global headwinds, including the U.S. and European banking crises and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike.

In Vietnam, investor confidence has also been hit by woes in the corporate bond sector, the ailing real estate market, the current credit crunch, and the slowing economy.

Under the circumstances, Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index has been hovering at around 1,040 points.

The Vietnamese stock market is expected to rebound after June 2023. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.

The Vietnamese stock market is expected to rebound after June 2023. Photo by The Investor/Trong Hieu.

In the first four months of the year, a clear trend has been sideways movement in the Vietnamese stock market with substantially decreased liquidity due to lower investor confidence, said Nguyen The Minh, chief analyst at Yuanta Vietnam Securities.

He added that investment is unlikely to return to the stock market while global headwinds remain fierce and domestic companies face heavy bond payment pressure in the second and third quarters of this year.

"Recently, the most positive move has been from foreign investors who have turned to net buyers. Their improved sentiment has come as exchange rate worries have cooled," he said.

Rallies expected before end of year

Ta Thanh Binh, director of the State Securities Commission's market development department, said both the Vietnamese economy and the stock market are facing a tough time despite lower interest rates and the Fed’s less aggressive interest rate hikes. Therefore, improved liquidity will be gradual.

She added global investor confidence is still being held up by the U.S. banking crisis, not to mention prolonged geopolitical conflicts.

Binh noted the State Securities Commission is continuing to implement measures to ensure smooth operations in the stock market towards its transparent and sustainable development, with the legitimate rights and interests of investors protected.

Minh of Yuanta Securities forecast that the stock market will experience two important stages in the next eight months.

In the first stage, from now until the end of June, the market will continue to move sideways in a narrow band, and investment will be scattered among sectors with low liquidity. “In other words, a clear wave is still absent,” Minh said, adding that the market is unlikely to drop drastically.

The second stage will arrive after June with clearer waves and rallies expected, based on the expectations that the Fed will stop raising interest rates and maybe even cut them after the third quarter. Along with this, the Vietnamese government’s measures to tackle woes in the property and corporate bond sectors will make a difference.

Minh recommended that investors take a defensive position until the end of the second quarter. As for surfers, they should hold fast as the market continues sideways, and only experienced investors should look for wider opportunities.

He added that market trends will be clearer after June.

Like him, Nguyen Anh Khoa, head of analysis and research at Agriseco Securities, said global headwinds may ease in the second half, and the government’s solutions will become more effective. “I expect the market to start improving from the middle of the year,” said Khoa.

According to him, investors who prefer short-term surfing should catch profit points, cut losses, and avoid long-term holding, especially in stocks with unknown stories.

“Normally, there will be two to three waves a year regardless of other market moves. Therefore, investors who prefer long-term and safe holdings should choose bluechips and avoid stocks with periodical changes or those that are directly affected by macro factors,” he said.

Comments (0)
  • Read More
Singapore's Platinum Victory seeks to gain veto at Vietnam’s REE

Singapore's Platinum Victory seeks to gain veto at Vietnam’s REE

Singaporean fund Platinum Victory Pte. Ltd. has registered to buy more shares of Ho Chi Minh City-based utility firm Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation (REE) to achieve the vetoing power in the latter.

Finance - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 11:29 am GMT+7

Posco keen on investing in Vietnam's $2.2 bln LNG power project

Posco keen on investing in Vietnam's $2.2 bln LNG power project

South Korea’s steelmaker Posco is eyeing to invest in the $2.2 billion Quynh Lap LNG-fired power plant project in Vietnam’s central province of Nghe An.

Energy - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:42 am GMT+7

Vietnam firm Hoa Lam to build $212 mln Aeon Mall in Mekong Delta

Vietnam firm Hoa Lam to build $212 mln Aeon Mall in Mekong Delta

The Mekong Delta city of Can Tho has accepted a subsidiary of private multi-sector Hoa Lam Group as the investor of the Aeon Mall Can Tho commerce and service center.

Industries - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 10:31 am GMT+7

Vietnam startup expert closes Monkey in Black coffee shop

Vietnam startup expert closes Monkey in Black coffee shop

Tung BT (Tran Thanh Tung), a popular startup expert and social media influencer, is closing his final coffee shop in Ho Chi Minh City, ending a 10-year journey of the "Monkey in Black" brand.

Companies - Thu, November 21, 2024 | 8:16 am GMT+7

Vietnam-Singapore ties set for elevation to comprehensive strategic partnership

Vietnam-Singapore ties set for elevation to comprehensive strategic partnership

Vietnam and Singapore will elevate bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will visit Vietnam next year.

Politics - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 8:16 pm GMT+7

Vietnam’s Vingroup establishes robotics firms, with co-founder’s 2 sons as major shareholders

Vietnam’s Vingroup establishes robotics firms, with co-founder’s 2 sons as major shareholders

Vingroup, Vietnam’s largest private conglomerate by ecosystem, has set up a robotics unit as it moves to ramp up its industrial-high technology ecosystem.

Companies - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 6:17 pm GMT+7

E-commerce, digital platforms likely to pay taxes on behalf of their sellers in Vietnam

E-commerce, digital platforms likely to pay taxes on behalf of their sellers in Vietnam

E-commerce and digital platforms will have to declare and pay taxes on behalf of their sellers starting January 1, 2025, according to a draft amendment to the Law on Tax Administration.

Finance - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 5:37 pm GMT+7

Flexibility, adaptability key to effective leadership: PepsiCo Vietnam exec

Flexibility, adaptability key to effective leadership: PepsiCo Vietnam exec

In a rapidly changing world, leaders need to develop the skill of being “as flexible as seaweed,” says Nguyen Viet Ha, general director of PepsiCo Foods Vietnam.

Companies - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 3:52 pm GMT+7

Central Vietnam province okays $88 mln automobile part project

Central Vietnam province okays $88 mln automobile part project

Binh Thuan province's industrial zone authority on Tuesday granted an investment registration certificate to a $88 million project invested by Taiwan’s NeoSCM Limited.

Industries - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 3:44 pm GMT+7

Thai packaging firm Thantawan Industry makes inroad into Vietnam

Thai packaging firm Thantawan Industry makes inroad into Vietnam

Thantawan Industry Public Company Limited, a leading Thai manufacturer of premium plastic packaging, has inked a deal for a 30-year factory lease, marking its inaugural investment in Vietnam.

Industries - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 3:34 pm GMT+7

Developer Novaland gets legal hassles cleared for satellite urban area bordering HCMC

Developer Novaland gets legal hassles cleared for satellite urban area bordering HCMC

Major property developer Novoland has had legal obstacles for its Aqua City project cleared after Dong Nai Chairman Vo Tan Duc approved Tuesday a critical adjustment to the southern province’s urban development plan.

Companies - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 2:29 pm GMT+7

Pegatron to quadruple workforce at $800 mln project in Vietnam

Pegatron to quadruple workforce at $800 mln project in Vietnam

Pegatron Vietnam, a subsidiary of Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Pegatron Corporation, is set to soon quadruple the company's workforce for its $800-million project in Vietnam.

Industries - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 2:03 pm GMT+7

Thailand’s WHA greenlighted to invest $55 mln in central Vietnam industrial park

Thailand’s WHA greenlighted to invest $55 mln in central Vietnam industrial park

WHA Group, a leading Thai provider of fully integrated logistics and industrial facilities solutions, has secured in-principle approval from the Vietnamese government to invest in an industrial park in central Vietnam.

Industrial real estate - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 12:01 pm GMT+7

Indonesia, Brazil sign cooperation deals worth $2.65 bln

Indonesia, Brazil sign cooperation deals worth $2.65 bln

Indonesia and Brazil on Monday sealed cooperation agreements worth $2.65 billion in the areas of renewable energy, sustainable agriculture and technology at the Indonesia-Brazil Business Forum held in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit.

Southeast Asia - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 11:57 am GMT+7

Nusantara not yet feasible as Indonesia’s capital city: authorities

Nusantara not yet feasible as Indonesia’s capital city: authorities

Indonesian Minister of Home Affairs Tito Karnavian said Jakarta still holds the capital status despite the enactment of State Capital Law No. 3 of 2022, adding that the capital city will officially be relocated after the president issues a presidential decree.

Southeast Asia - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 11:55 am GMT+7

Malaysia’s Halal industry to make up 10.8% of GDP by 2030

Malaysia’s Halal industry to make up 10.8% of GDP by 2030

Malaysia’s Halal industry is projected to account for 10.8% of the country's GDP by 2030, with an estimated value of RM231.1 billion ($51.7 billion).

Southeast Asia - Wed, November 20, 2024 | 11:48 am GMT+7