Vietnam economy can grow 6% in 2024, 6.5% in 2025: UN

Vietnam could reach GDP growth of 6% this year and 6.5% in 2025, according to the United Nations' (UN) World Economic Situation Prospects 2024 report.

Vietnam’s figure for 2024 is the highest in East Asia, on par with Cambodia and higher than the Philippines with 5.8% and Mongolia with 5.5%. For 2025, Vietnam’s figure is also the highest in East Asia, followed by Cambodia with 6.2%, the Philippines with 6%, and Mongolia with 6%.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 5.05% year-on-year to $430 billion in 2023, according to its General Statistics Office (GSO). The figure is higher than 2.91% in 2020 and 2.58% in 2021, the two peak years of the Covid-19 pandemic; but lower than 8.02% in 2022, the post-pandemic period, and 7.02% in 2019, the pre-pandemic period.

The UN also predicted Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI), an indicator of inflation, would reach 3.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, higher than East Asia’s average of 1.9% and 2.1% in the two years, respectively.

Vietnam's average CPI increased 3.25% year-on-year in 2023, below the mandated 4.5% limit, GSO data shows.

Commenting on the 2023 performance, the UN said growth in many of economies specializing in the production of merchandise and electronic products, including Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam, took a hit due to falling external orders, while private consumption remained resilient.

In the latest report, the UN said the global GDP growth would slow down from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.4% in 2024, signaling a continuation of sluggish growth trends. “Developing economies, in particular, are struggling to recover from pandemic-induced losses, with many facing high debt and investment shortfalls,” the UN said.

The U.S. economy is expected to decelerate from 2.5% in 2023 to 1.4% in 2024 due to falling household savings, high interest rates, and a softening labor market. China’s economic recovery was gradual, with growth reaching 5.3% in 2023, but is expected to moderate to 4.7% in 2024.

East Asia’s economy is projected to increase from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, with climate crisis and geopolitical instability impacting the region.

Vietnam’s GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 6.7% in 2024, 6.2% in the first half and 6.9% in the second half, Standard Chartered Bank says in its newly-released global research report. The foreign direct investment (FDI) recovery remains lackluster; a stronger recovery in FDI flow would require faster GDP growth, said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered.

Vietnams’s economic growth can reach 5.5% in 2024, thanks to public spending and tourism recovery outweighing external challenges, Shinhan Bank S&T Center anticipated. Regarding FDI, in its "Vietnam’s Economy and Financial Market Outlook in 2024" report, the research arm of Shinhan Bank noted said investments in Vietnam are expected to increase as a result of the elevated partnership between Vietnam and the U.S., particularly in the semiconductor and mineral sectors.