Vietnam GDP could gain 2-3 percentage points from new growth drivers: economist

Vietnam’s GDP growth could reach 9-9.3% this year and may rise by an additional 2-3 percentage points if new growth drivers are effectively leveraged, said Can Van Luc, chief economist at state-controlled BIDV bank.

Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, Luc, also a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said global headwinds could weigh on Vietnam’s outlook. As a result, growth could ease to around 9.3% from a 10% target, and fall further to about 9% if U.S. tariffs are factored in, he added.

He argued that Vietnam should not aim to achieve 10% growth every year, but rather target an average of 10% over a five-year period, allowing for more flexible policymaking and avoiding excessive pressure to pursue growth at all costs.

“Economic management this year needs to be framed within both short-term objectives and a long-term vision,” he added.

The economist stressed that growth should be viewed over the long term, potentially through 2040, 2090 or even 2100. Vietnam must therefore both renew its growth model to sustain high rates - a necessary condition - and ensure sustainability - a sufficient condition. He noted this approach aligns with four policy orientations outlined by the Communist Party leadership.

New growth drivers

Referring to the World Bank’s “3i” model for developing countries - investment, infusion, and innovation - Luc said Vietnam should pursue all three simultaneously rather than sequentially, as a step-by-step approach would make it difficult to achieve high-income status by 2045.

Promoting investment, technology adoption and innovation in parallel would not only expand production capacity but also create additional growth momentum over the medium term, he said.

Vietnam’s traditional growth model is based on three main pillars: labor, capital and total factor productivity (TFP). International experience suggests labor contributes 6-10% to growth, capital 35-40%, and TFP 40-45%. In Vietnam, since 1991, labor has contributed around 14-15%, capital 40-45%, and TFP about 45%, rising to roughly 47% last year.

To achieve double-digit growth, Vietnam must strengthen all three pillars simultaneously, Luc said, likening them to a “three-legged stool”.

To improve TFP, he identified five key areas: science and technology, digital transformation and innovation; development of high-quality human resources; improving market efficiency and resource allocation; infrastructure development and lower logistics costs; and institutional reform.

The economist noted that gains from science and technology tend to lag and may not translate into immediate growth. In addition to traditional drivers such as exports, investment and consumption, Vietnam should therefore foster new growth engines.

Institutional reforms could add about 0.5-1 pencentage point to growth, while the development of economic hubs and stronger regional linkages could contribute around 4 pencentage points. Digital transformation and science and technology could add a further 1 pencentage point, he said.

“Taken together, new growth drivers could add 2-3 pencentage points to GDP growth, providing important headroom to support this year’s target amid persistent external pressures,” Luc said.

Vietnam’s economy grew 8.02% in 2025, its second-fastest pace in the past 15 years, driven mainly by services and industrial production, official data shows. The economic expansion was second only to 2022’s 8.12% over the 2011-2025 period, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).

The National Assembly, Vietnam's legislature, on November 12 approved a resolution setting an economic expansion target of at least 10% for 2026, per capita GDP at $5,400-5,500, and inflation controlled at around 4.5%.