Vietnam gold price gap with global market narrows

After a period of sharp volatility in 2024-2025, Vietnam’s gold market is entering 2026 under a markedly different regulatory framework, with the price gap between domestic and global markets gradually narrowing.

The domestic gold market this year appears to be in a different phase from the peak turbulence seen in 2024-2025. Previously, the gap between local and international gold prices at times surged to VND15-20 million ($770) per tael, putting pressure on macroeconomic management and market sentiment. In early 2026, however, the spread has shown signs of narrowing and becoming more stable.

The shift reflects not only global price movements but, more importantly, a change in regulatory thinking - from ad hoc administrative intervention to a model of “controlled marketization”.

Internationally, gold prices have set fresh record highs, breaking above $5,000 per ounce and at times approaching $5,200 in January 2026, driven by escalating geopolitical risks, supply-chain tensions, and heightened global demand for safe-haven assets.

At home, prices of SJC gold bars have climbed above VND180 million ($6,930) per tael, an all-time high. Unlike previous price surges, however, the gap between domestic and global prices has not widened abruptly.

While the 2024-2025 period saw spreads reaching VND18-20 million ($770) per tael and swinging sharply within just a few sessions, early 2026 has seen a much higher price base but a narrower and more stable differential. Analysts say this suggests the market is tracking international trends more closely rather than forming localized speculative spikes.

Market observers attribute the change to three main factors: more diversified supply following the Government's Decree 232/2025, tighter market discipline, and expectations that a national gold exchange will soon begin operations - a key psychological anchor for investors.

Previously, authorities relied mainly on gold bar auctions to manage short-term supply and demand. In early 2026, the Government shifted to a broader policy toolkit.

Decree 340/2025/ND-CP that took effect on February 9 raised penalties to as much as VND300-400 million ($15,400) for unlicensed gold trading or smuggling, helping curb price manipulation by small, informal operators.

At the same time, a government notice issued on January 30 called for the swift completion of procedures to establish a national gold exchange, urging agencies to avoid delays. Although the exchange has yet to become operational, analysts say the policy signal alone has helped narrow the price gap.

The overarching message, they say, is that the state is moving away from heavy-handed administrative controls towards transparent rule-setting, strong enforcement, and greater reliance on market mechanisms.

Three pillars for the next phase

Drawing on international experience - notably the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Singapore Bullion Market Association - Vietnamese experts have outlined three core policy recommendations.

First is the introduction of “account-based gold” trading to ease import pressure. Can Van Luc, a member of the National Monetary and Financial Policy Advisory Council, said a future gold exchange should not be limited to physical transactions.

He proposed running an electronic account-based trading model alongside physical trading. With real-time linkage to global prices, he said, investor demand for holding physical gold would decline, reducing speculative behaviour base. Second is standardization and centralized custody.

Dao Xuan Tuan, head of the Foreign Exchange Management Department under the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), stressed the need for a centralized system to certify and store gold meeting a 99.99% purity standard before it is listed on the exchange.

Lessons from India show that without common standards, markets can fragment along brand lines - such as SJC, PNJ or Doji - resulting in inconsistent pricing and undermining efforts to narrow spreads, he said.

Third, taxes should be used as a regulatory tool rather than a barrier. Dinh Trong Thinh said fiscal policy should rely on flexible taxation instead of outright restrictions.

He proposed tax exemptions or reductions for investment gold traded on the exchange to encourage households to bring gold into the formal system, while imposing higher taxes on physical gold held outside it to curb gold hoarding.

Singapore’s experience - where investment gold is exempt from goods and services tax - shows that well-designed tax policy can attract capital while improving transparency, he added.

Compared with the 2012-2024 period, when state monopoly under Decree 24 focused on curbing “goldization” by restricting supply, the 2025-2026 approach marks a clear shift.

Rather than limiting supply, policymakers are prioritizing transparency, global price linkage, and modern financial tools such as exchanges, centralized custody, and flexible taxation.

Early results suggest the price gap is narrowing and stabilizing, even as absolute gold prices remain elevated.

Challenges remain, including designing an appropriate exchange model, ensuring system safety and coordinating monetary and fiscal policies. Still, early-2026 signals indicate Vietnam’s gold market is entering a new cycle - one in which market discipline and transparency replace short-term administrative measures.

If reforms stay on track, analysts say, a durable narrowing of the domestic-global gold price gap is well within reach.