Vietnam inflation to top 4%: Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered Bank expected Vietnam’s inflation this year at 4.2%, higher than the central bank’s prediction of less than 4%.
The higher rate was attributed to supply-side factors including rising commodity prices, especially given the current global geopolitical tension, the lender said in a note, adding that demand-push inflationary factors are likely to kick in over the medium run as the economy recovers.
Vietnam’s inflation may jump to 5.5% next year, much higher than the 2021 CPI of 1.84%, which was the lowest in six years, according to the bank.
ADB this month predicted Vietnam’s inflation to hit 3.8% this year and 4% next year, indicating the instability in global oil prices, while HSBC maintained its estimation at 3.7%.
HSBC believed that the possibility of rising inflation would signal a tightened monetary policy. This explained why the bank projected the basic interest rate will rise by 50 basis points in Q3, instead of Q4 as previously forecast.
Regarding GDP, Standard Chartered maintained its 2022 forecast at 6.7%, as economic indicators recover on a large scale. The recovery may accelerate substantially in late Q2/2022 as domestic demand and tourism recover, it added.
World Bank last week lowered Vietnam’s 2022 GDP projection to 5.3% due to challenges in terms of rising Covid-19 infections and the country’s vulnerability to external shocks due to its high economic openness. This estimation is much lower than that of other international institutions.
ADB on Wednesday last week stated that it anticipated Vietnam’s growth rate to converge to its pre-pandemic level of 6.5% in 2022 and 6.7% in 2023 thanks to “high vaccination coverage, the shift to a more flexible pandemic containment approach, expanding trade, and the government’s economic recovery and development program.”
On Thursday the same week, HSBC lowered the country’s economic expansion forecast by 0.3% to 6.2%, due to the impact of the global fuel shortage. Fitch Ratings in a release some days prior estimated the figure at 6.1% in 2022 and 6.3% in 2023, from 2.6% in 2021, led by a recovery in domestic demand, strong exports and high FDI inflows, particularly in the manufacturing sector. Previously, in March, IMF put its forecast at 6.6%.
“The government lifted its quarantine requirement for international arrivals in mid-March. We think the reopening of tourism, which accounts for close to 10% of GDP, is the key development to watch in Q2/2022 after a two-year closure,” said Tim Leelahaphan, economist for Thailand and Vietnam at Standard Chartered.
In addition, the creditor maintained its medium-term constructive view on the Vietnamese dong, driven by a supportive external balance. Despite higher commodity prices, Vietnam’s current account is likely to remain in a surplus this year given tourism recovery.
Standard Chartered forecasts the exchange rate at VND22,300 and VND22,000 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Vietnam remains a manufacturing hub and key link in the global supply chain despite geopolitical and pandemic-related challenges, it said. FDI began to rebound this year after shrinking in 2021, and the lender expected this trend to continue, particularly in sectors like manufacturing, electricity and gas, and air conditioner supplies.
Foreign investors remain the key driver of Vietnam’s contribution to the global supply chain. Several major global tech enterprises have shifted (or plan to shift) production from China to Vietnam in recent years to diversify their supply chains, according to the creditor.
“Vietnam remains attractive as a regional manufacturing hub for sectors including electronics, textiles, garments and footwear,” added Leelahaphan.
- Read More
Vietnam-China partnership to enable export of Kim Long brand cars
Vietnam’s Kim Long Motor and Futa Group have struck a strategic cooperation agreement with China’s Dongfem Dana that will enable the production and export of cars under the Kim Long brand, executives said Friday.
Companies - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 7:13 pm GMT+7
Northern Vietnam province attracts $124 mln investment from Taiwan firm
Taiwan-based Nien Made Enterprise Co., Ltd. will invest $124.1 million to make furniture accessories at Phu Ha Industrial Park in the northern province of Phu Tho.
Industries - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 7:01 pm GMT+7
Vietnam’s first LNG-fired power plants to enter commercial operation in Jun-Sept 2025
Nhon Trach 3 and Nhon Trach 4, Vietnam’s first LNG-to-power plants, will begin commercial operations in June and September 2025, respectively, says project investor PV Power.
Energy - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 3:20 pm GMT+7
Vinhomes spends $276 mln on buying back 162 mln shares, more than half to go
Vinhomes, the largest housing developer in Vietnam, has spent around VND7 trillion ($275.7 million) on implementing its record buyback plan since kick-starting it on October 23.
Finance - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 1:21 pm GMT+7
Indonesia secures funding for green power infrastructure at COP29
Indonesia has attracted EUR1.2 billion ($1.26 billion) worth of green funding for the electricity sector from Germany’s Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) at the 29th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Southeast Asia - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 10:10 am GMT+7
Hanoi-based fledgling firm spends $12.3 mln on buying 17.2 mln shares of lender VIB
Hanoi-based Quang Kim Development and Investment JSC acquired 17.2 million shares of Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank (HoSE: VIB) on Monday.
Banking - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 9:47 am GMT+7
Vietnam can utilize Trump’s policies to enhance position in global supply chains: experts
Vietnam can take the advantage of protectionist economic policies by Donald Trump, the 47th president of the U.S., to strengthen its position in global supply chains, attract foreign investment, and drive sustainable economic growth, write Dr. Tran Ngoc Mai and Prof. Dr. Doan Ngoc Thang, lecturers at the Banking Academy of Vietnam.
Top News - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 9:30 am GMT+7
Former provincial Party chiefs receive warnings for Thuan An Group-related violations
The Politburo, Vietnam’s highest decision-making body, has issued warnings to Nguyen Xuan Ky, former Party chief of Quang Ninh province, and Bui Van Cuong, former Party chief of Dak Lak province, for violations related to Thuan An Group.
Politics - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 9:24 am GMT+7
GenAI set to increase Thai GDP by 6% by 2030
Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) is projected to raise Thailand's GDP by 6% by 2030, with hefty contributions from the trade and manufacturing sectors, according to a joint online survey by SCB X and SCB Economic Intelligence Centre (SCB EIC) of the country.
Southeast Asia - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 9:00 am GMT+7
Thailand prepares for nuclear energy
Thailand’s Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) will start looking into the legal aspects of a small modular reactor project this month to prepare Thailand for using nuclear energy.
Southeast Asia - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 8:30 am GMT+7
Data is money, big money: Vietnam tech giant FPT
Vietnamese tech giant FPT Corporation views data as a new resource and is determined to convert it into money and an artery of the economy, says its general director Nguyen Van Khoa.
Companies - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 7:18 am GMT+7
US to support Indonesia in developing small modular nuclear reactors
The U.S. has pledged to assist Indonesia in accelerating the development of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), according to Indonesia's Presidential Office.
Southeast Asia - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 12:13 am GMT+7
Singapore's venture capital market grows increasingly attractive
Despite a slump in funding, Singapore’s venture capital market remained active in the first nine months, The Straits Times reported.
Southeast Asia - Sat, November 16, 2024 | 12:08 am GMT+7
VinFast CEO-owned firm secures extra deal to lease EVs to ride-hailing firm
A taxi service provider based in Vietnam’s central province of Binh Dinh will lease 1,000 VinFast electric cars from an electric vehicle (EV) leasing firm that is 90% owned by billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong, the CEO of the Vietnamese carmaker.
Companies - Fri, November 15, 2024 | 8:35 pm GMT+7
Chinese, Vietnamese firms plan $2 bln renewable energy-hydrogen project
3TI Progetti Asia, a local planning-design business, and two Chinese firms plan to invest $2 billion in a hydrogen production project using renewable energy in Vietnam's south-central province of Ninh Thuan.
Energy - Fri, November 15, 2024 | 7:35 pm GMT+7
US Treasury retains Vietnam on ‘monitoring list’ for currency management
Vietnam, a major trading partner, remains on the U.S. Treasury Department’s “monitoring list,” the department has affirmed in its November 2024 report to the Congress.
Economy - Fri, November 15, 2024 | 4:48 pm GMT+7