Which sectors to drive Q2 earnings growth in Vietnam?

Vietnam's transport, industrial real estate, retail and oil & gas sectors are expected to lead corporate earnings growth in the second quarter, while airlines and export-oriented companies are likely to remain under pressure from higher costs and subdued demand, according to MB Securities (MBS).

In a report released at the end of June, MBS Research said earnings of Vietnamese listed companies were expected to maintain their growth momentum in the April-June period despite persistent macroeconomic headwinds, including inflationary pressures, elevated oil prices and relatively high interest rates.

MBS forecasts aggregate net profit for the market to rise about 15% from a year earlier. The transport sector is expected to post the strongest earnings growth, up 65% year-on-year, followed by industrial real estate at 58%, retail at 34% and oil and gas at 28%.

By contrast, airlines and export-related businesses are projected to face continued pressure from higher input costs, elevated borrowing costs, and demand that has yet to recover fully.

Vietnam's total trade turnover rose 25% year-on-year in the first five months of 2026, while container throughput across the country's seaport system increased about 10.5%, MBS noted.

The brokerage said the ongoing "China+1" manufacturing strategy continued to support foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into Vietnam. At the same time, retailers in the United States and Europe accelerated orders to reduce risks associated with higher freight costs and new U.S. tariff policies.

Seaport operators are expected to be among the biggest beneficiaries as both cargo volumes and revenue continue to grow. MBS said operators with deep-water ports, including Gemadept (GMD) and Hai Phong Port (PHP), were likely to report stronger earnings, supported by contributions from the Gemalink terminal and Lach Huyen berths 3 and 4.

River port operator Viconship (VSC), however, is expected to post slower growth as higher dredging and channel upgrade expenses, along with rising selling costs amid intensifying competition, weigh on profitability.

In the shipping segment, Hai An Transport and Stevedoring (HAH) is expected to report a slight decline in earnings because most vessel charter contracts had been secured last year, while higher fuel prices are likely to pressure profit margins. Courier and logistics companies are also expected to see weaker earnings due to their relatively high fuel costs.

Industrial parks supported by FDI

MBS said the outlook for Vietnam's industrial park sector remained positive as robust FDI inflows continued to support demand.

Disbursed FDI reached $9.75 billion in the first five months of the year, up 9.6% from a year earlier, while registered FDI capital surged nearly 35% to $25 billion, a five-year high.

The brokerage said the Politburo's Resolution 10-NQ/TW on developing the foreign invested sector, which promotes the development of green, high-tech and eco-industrial parks, could create a new growth cycle for the sector.

Companies with large industrial land banks, including Becamex IDC (BCM), Kinh Bac City Development Holding (KBC) and IDICO (IDC), are expected to benefit the most.

Second-quarter net profit for industrial park developers is forecast to increase about 58%, mainly driven by large land compensation income at Phuoc Hoa Rubber (PHR) and Vietnam Rubber Group (GVR), as well as earnings recoveries at KBC and IDC after land lease contracts resumed following delays linked to U.S. reciprocal tariff policies.

Meanwhile, Becamex IDC, Viglacera (VGC) and Sonadezi Chau Duc (SZC) are expected to report weaker earnings due to high year-earlier comparison bases or the impact of new accounting policies.

Retail improves but consumer demand remains fragile

Retail sales of goods and consumer services rose 11.2% year-on-year during the first five months of 2026, MBS said. However, domestic consumption has yet to stage a full recovery as household incomes improve only gradually while inflation remains elevated.

Within the consumer staples segment, dairy producers are expected to benefit from tighter controls on smuggled milk products and growing demand for premium nutritional products, helping companies such as Vinamilk (VNM) and Moc Chau Milk (MCM) improve both sales volumes and pricing.

Livestock producers, however, are likely to remain under pressure as higher feed costs coincide with declining live hog prices, squeezing profit margins.

Modern retail chains WinCommerce and Bach Hoa Xanh continued to expand market share through competitive pricing and strong brand recognition, while electronics retailers benefited from replacement demand for household appliances and air-conditioning equipment, the brokerage said.

Oil & gas, banks expected to post solid results

The oil and gas sector is expected to deliver another strong quarter as average Brent crude prices remain around $97 per barrel and several major upstream projects gather pace.

Oilfield service providers PetroVietnam Technical Services (PVS) and PetroVietnam Drilling (PVD) are expected to report healthy earnings growth, supported by more active exploration and production activities.

PetroVietnam Transportation (PVT) is likely to benefit only indirectly from higher international freight rates because its fleet consists mainly of Aframax crude tankers and refined product carriers.

PetroVietnam Gas (GAS), meanwhile, may report lower earnings because the year-earlier period included a one-off provision reversal of about VND1.6 trillion ($61 million), creating a high comparison base.

For the banking sector, MBS expects credit growth to reach around 9% from the beginning of the year by the end of the second quarter, driven primarily by corporate lending.

VPBank (VPB) and HDBank (HDB), which have taken over weak lenders under Vietnam's mandatory transfer program, are expected to outperform the sector in credit growth after receiving higher lending quotas.

Although deposit rates have eased since the end of the first quarter, MBS added net interest margins (NIM) across the banking sector would likely remain under pressure. State-owned lenders Vietcombank (VCB) and VietinBank (CTG), nevertheless, could improve their margins thanks to lower funding costs.

Net interest income for the banks under MBS coverage is forecast to rise 15.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income is expected to increase 11.3%. Provisioning costs are projected to climb about 19% due to persistent bad debt pressures, but second-quarter net profit for the banking sector is still expected to grow around 16% from a year earlier.