Vietnam property market to recover in 2024: Cushman & Wakefield

The ailing Vietnamese real estate market is expected to pick up next year and rally in 2025 as it becomes a more institutional investor market, prominent property services firm Cushman & Wakefield said.

“Foreign institutional investors are still keeping a close eye on the market, and we’ve received lots of inquiries from them,” Trang Bui, country manager of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam, told a press briefing in Ho Chi Minh City on Friday.

“The credibility of foreign investors in the market still exists,” she said, noting the fact that Vietnam is growing into a new global manufacturing hub with the presence of leading multinational corporations.

A real estate market normally develops via four stages namely recovery, growth, fever, and recession, according to market experts.

In the past few months, Vietnam’s property market is in a quiet period. This stage can be seen as the time for the market to undergo a “detoxing” period to become more sustainable and healthier, Trang said.

Cushman & Wakefield forecasts that banks in the country will continue to tighten lending for the market to minimize capital risk.

“We do think a stricter and more prudent lending environment will create a safe and long-term investment environment that will support macroeconomic stability.

“Therefore, we believe that when the market overcomes the depression and recovers, there will be the participation of many large global investment organizations in the Vietnam real estate market in the period 2024 - 2026. This is also the time when the market is expected to grow,” said Trang.

Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam has recorded some good signals in the licensing process for a number of projects but acknowledged that there are still many projects delayed in the legal approval process.

For more real estate investment activities to take place in the market, Vietnam needs to achieve a higher level of transparency, better urban planning as well as a stronger legal framework to attract foreign investors, according to the company.

“Once the regulatory review is completed, we expect supply growth to be able to meet demand, and the market will be more transparent and efficient for both domestic and foreign investors,” Trang said.

She added market reports by Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam are read by construction and real estate officials in the country for reference.

Cushman & Wakefield’s Asia Pacific CEO Matthew Bouw paid a working visit to Vietnam this May to offer updates on global market developments. Industrial and logistics properties in Vietnam are the preferred asset choice for foreign investors while the office segment is also in demand, he said.

Cushman & Wakefield held a large client event in Singapore just before that, welcoming 80 world-leading investors, with a number of them operating in Asia. During the event, the firm asked them to rank their preferred real estate investment markets and the responses were often Japan, Australia, and Vietnam.

“The positive sentiment around Vietnam is due to a number of factors, including the fast-growing manufacturing sector, and the growth dynamics of Vietnam more broadly,” Bouw said while visiting this market.

The fast-growing manufacturing sector was also stressed by VinaCapital’s chief economist Michael Kokalari while he was explaining in June why investors should pay close attention to various opportunities in Vietnam’s logistics industry.

Vietnam’s manufacturing sector currently accounts for just over 20% of the country’s economy but this figure reached above 30% for other “Asian Tiger” economies, and that continued FDI investment inflows – which have helped fund the build-out of Vietnam’s industrial base for – are essentially ensured for years to come, partly because Vietnam is a beneficiary of the nascent “friendshoring” phenomenon, he wrote.