Vietnam's public investment-linked stocks seen benefiting in 2026

Capital flows in 2026 are expected to favor sectors that stand to benefit from Vietnam’s public investment drive, including infrastructure, energy, and construction, market experts said.

Vietnam’s stock market extended its gains in 2025, with both index levels and liquidity outperforming many regional peers. Total market capitalization has exceeded VND9,680 trillion ($367.88 billion), equivalent to about 84.1% of estimated 2024 GDP, providing a solid base heading into 2026.

Speaking on The Finance Street talk show of Vietnam Television, analysts said that despite lingering challenges, the economic and market foundations built in 2025 point to a continued upward trend next year.

Tran Thang Long, head of research at BIDV Securities (BSC), said 2025 marked a year of structural change for Vietnam’s stock market. The market successfully upgraded its KRX trading system in May and was subsequently classified by FTSE Russell as a secondary emerging market, pending final confirmation next year.

The move reflects improvements in market quality, transparency, and liquidity, as well as efforts by regulators to attract foreign investors, he said.

Long added that Bloomberg forecasts show Vietnam’s valuation and growth prospects remain attractive, with projected 2026 price-to-earnings ratios and earnings growth comparing favorably with most markets in the region.

He expects gains in 2026 to be more evenly distributed across stocks, with foreign capital likely to return more strongly once Vietnam is officially included in secondary emerging market indices.

Ho Quoc Tuan, a senior lecturer at the University of Bristol, the UK, said that many markets tend to concentrate gains in a small number of leading stocks, creating opportunities for re-rating in other segments.

“Once investors realize that market leaders have become too expensive relative to fundamentals, capital will be reallocated. That should be seen as an opportunity rather than a risk,” Tuan said, adding that such a rotation could take place in 2026.

Public investment theme in focus

Both experts said sectors linked to public investment are likely to attract capital next year.

Tuan said 2026 is unlikely to see major market shocks, with funds instead rotating into high-quality stocks that have lagged in 2025. Infrastructure, energy and construction-related companies still have room for growth and have yet to see heavy capital allocation, he said.

However, he cautioned that interest rate risks remain, noting that an unexpected rise in global rates could hit highly leveraged sectors.

Long shared a similar view, saying strong public investment disbursement and policy shifts in infrastructure development would continue to support construction, building materials and energy stocks, which form the backbone of the economy.

While the VN-Index posted strong gains in 2025, stock performance has been highly uneven. Long expects less extreme divergence in 2026, with investment themes spreading across a broader range of large-cap stocks as the market moves closer to emerging market status.

He said capital is likely to focus on companies with solid growth prospects in sectors such as consumer goods, banking, basic resources, utilities, and technology.