Vietnam real estate loses ground, but hopeful signs emerge amidst 2023 gloom

2023 was a year of unprecedented challenges for Vietnam’s real estate market, slowing and stalling its recovery, but there were some hopeful signs. The Investor looks back at some highlights.

Supply-demand mismatch, scant affordable housing

According to the Ministry of Construction, at the end Q3/2023, real estate supply remained limited across all segments. A total of 42 commercial housing projects with about 15,966 units were completed, down 53.85% against the same period in 2022. Five social housing projects launched 850 apartments for sale and 17 hospitality and condotel projects were completed, down 43.33% year-on-year.

Meanwhile, data from the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA) showed critical imbalances in supply and demand, characterized in particular by a shortage of residential housing, especially affordable condos.

For example, in Ho Chi Minh City, housing supply dwindled from 16,895 units in 2020 to 14,443 units in 2021 and 12,147 units in 2022. The figure improved slightly to 15,020 units in the first nine months of 2023.

The imbalance was seen across all segments as high-end products dominated the market. In Ho Chi Minh City, the high-end segment made up 70% in 2020, 72% in 2021, 78.2% in 2022 and 66.37% in the first three quarters of 2023.

The mid-end housing segment accounted for almost all of the rest. The affordable segment saw only 163 apartments launched in 2020, making up a mere 1%, and zero products afterwards.

Housing prices keep rising

Data from the Ministry of Construction showed that in Hanoi, prices of freshly launched apartments on the primary market averaged VND50.8 million ($2,090) per square meter in Q3/2023, up nearly 7% quarter-on-quarter and 14% year-on-year. The selling price on HCMC’s primary apartment market in Q3 surpassed VND60 million ($2,469)/m2.

According to data from real estate services firm Batdongsan.com.vn, offering prices of apartment increased 1-5% in Hanoi and was almost flat in HCMC.

However, from 2015 to present, the increase in Hanoi and HCMC apartment prices outpaced the growth in people's income. In the last eight years, apartment prices in HCMC and Hanoi soared 82% and 56%, respectively, while incomes of urban area residents rose 39%.

Meanwhile, a Savills Vietnam report showed that the price of primary apartments in Hanoi had risen for 19 consecutive quarters and was 77% higher than that in Q1/2019. In HCMC, the average price in the primary market in Q3 was almost unchanged versus Q2, but increased 15% year-on-year.

First positive signals after extended gloom

According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), for the first 9 months of this year, the government and central agencies acted decisively to revive the real estate market. The government took some 20 measures in the period, enhancing confidence in the market.

The real estate market has been seeing more positive developments. There were 3,700 transactions in Q2, up 37% compared to Q1. In Q3, there were nearly 6,000 transactions, 1.5 times the number in Q2 and more than double that of Q1.

Unprecedented sales policies

Real estate developers have been offering major promotions to stimulate year-end sales.

For example, for its Phu Dong Sky Garden project in Binh Duong province, Phu Dong Group is supporting homebuyers with interest payments for four years. It is offering no interest for the first year and a fixed interest rate of 8% for the next three years. For customers who do not take out loans, the company is offering a 10% discount.

Lot of talk, not much action

A Prime Minister's working group, headed by the Minister of Construction, has worked with eight localities on removing difficulties and obstacles in implementing real estate projects.

The working group has so far received 138 documents reporting problems and recommendations from localities, businesses, associations and citizens related to 191 real estate projects.

The group and the Ministry of Construction have reviewed and processed 126 documents; forwarded 12 documents to the Ministries of Planning and Investment and Natural Resources and Environment; and issued 37 documents guiding and solving difficulties and problems in planning, social housing, and renovation of degraded apartments, granting construction permits and transfer of projects.

In general, the localities are actively reviewing problems facing real estate projects, but most of the resultant activity has involved exchange of comments between agencies and the provision of directions towards finding answers.

Real estate execs in legal trouble

On January 15, 2023, the investigative arm of the Ministry of Public Security initiated legal proceedings and detained Nguyen Cao Tri, CEO of Saigon - Dai Ninh Tourism Investment JSC, on the charge of “abuse of trust for appropriation of assets." The company is the investor of a commercial and ecotourism project in Lam Dong with an investment of VND25 trillion ($1.02 billion).

In September, Vu Thi Thuy, chairwoman cum CEO of Nhat Nam Real Estate Co., was detained for fraud and appropriating VND 8.9 trillion ($366 million) from 20,000 individuals.

In October, Dinh Truong Chinh, former director of Viet Han Trading, Advertising, Construction and Real Estate Co., Ltd (Viet Han Company), was detained for “violating regulations on the management and use of state property causing losses and wastefulness” related to prime land plots in District 1, HCMC.

Late last month, Chinh was arrested pending investigations into the charge of “abuse of trust for appropriation of property” in relation to the An Khanh - An Phu Urban Area project in Thu Duc city.

Two amended real estate laws passed

The National Assembly, the country’s highest legislative body, approved in November amended laws on housing and real estate business that will take effect on January 1, 2025.

Highlights of the (amended) Law on Housing include provisions stipulating no fixed-term ownership of apartment buildings; and the Vietnam General Confederation of Labor being the investor of social housing projects for workers – for ownership or rent.

Meanwhile, the Law on Real Estate Business regulates that real estate businesses must publicly disclose information on the housing information system and their websites. Other provisions require realtors to have a professional certificate and limit real estate developers to collecting advance payments/deposits that are no more than 5% of the total contract value.