Vietnam retail to bustle more in 2024, shopping malls to hog limelight

The Vietnamese retail market will bustle more this year, with rising rentals and increased presence of foreign tenants at shopping malls in the suburbs of major cities, industry insiders said.

They added that the outlook is promising despite some apparent drawbacks like the absence of major international retail brands and low occupancy rates in prime locations like Dong Khoi, Hai Ba Trung and Nguyen Thi Minh Khai streets in Ho Chi Minh City.

Some commented that the absence of international brands on Dong Khoi street is striking because it is among the most expensive retail avenues in the world, with rents of about $350 per square meter per month.

However, “this is not strange as big international brands look for a shopping complex or shopping mall,” argued Trang Bui, CEO of Cushman & Wakefield Vietnam.

"Over the past five years, there has been almost no supply for the retail market in the central area, despite many shophouse projects. It is necessary to pay attention to the ‘taste’ of foreign investors and luxury brands. They are renters who want to stay in a shopping complex or commercial center that gathers at least 200 big, famous brands. But many real estate investors in Vietnam do not pay attention to this, leading to the supply-demand mismatch."

In 2024 and the next few years, supply from existing shopping malls will still attract more investment than normal premises, she noted.

Sharing this view, deputy director of CBRE Vietnam’s research and consulting department Pham Ngoc Thien Thanh said shopping malls on the edge of downtown Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will lead supply with good price growth.

"In contrast to the sluggish townhouse rental market, shopping malls enjoy good growth with occupancy rates maintained at a high level. Foreign retail brands, especially high-end and luxury brands, recorded quite good sales in the Asia Pacific region last year compared to other regions. Therefore, they have continued to expand stores,” he said.

Both experts noted that new outlets will contribute to the increased retail market bustle of 2024. Five new projects are set to open in Hanoi with a total rental area nearly 40,000 square meters. In Ho Chi Minh City, two large-scale shopping malls – the Vincom shopping center at the Vinhomes Grand Park Urban Area in District 9 and the Parc Mall in District 8 – are set to open this year with a total rental area of nearly 70,000 square meters.

2023 bright spots

Experts also noted that despite the “rising wave” of tenants vacating premises on busy roads and large commercial centers like Vincom, the retail market had many bright spots last year.

In 2023, Vietnam's retail market welcomed many new projects with nearly 111,000 square meters in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The most prominent of these was the Lotte Mall West Lake Hanoi commercial center, inaugurated in the second half of the year. With a rental area of up to 72,000 square meters (not including the basement and aquarium area), it is the largest shopping mall project that has come up in the past four years.

The Linc complex in Hanoi's Park City Urban Area also began official operations last year.

2023 also welcomed the return of The Loop shopping center in Hanoi and Hung Vuong Plaza shopping center in HCMC after a period of closure for renovation.

In addition, private conglomerate Thaco opened two Thiso Mall shopping centers in HCMC’s Thu Duc city and Go Vap district, with a focus on the famous Emart supermarket chain.

Besides shopping malls, HCMC’s Dong Khoi street entered the list of the 13 most expensive avenues in the world, according to Cushman & Wakefield's World Retail Avenue 2023 report.

The rental price on the street reached $350 per square meter per month, up 17% over the same period and 40% compared to the time before the Covid-19, pushing it up one place from 14th in 2022. The figure was even higher than other most expensive routes in Amsterdam (Netherlands) or Bangkok (Thailand).

2023 witnessed U.S.-based Bain Capital investment fund forking out more than $200 million to acquire shares of Masan Group, Vietnam's leading retail group, at a price of VND85,000 per share. Masan is listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) as MSN.

The proceeds from the deal will be used to improve the financial position and optimize the balance sheet of the Vietnamese consumer firm, Masan announced October 2.

Bain Capital is considered the world's leading private investment fund, managing assets worth approximately $180 billion. The acquisition of Masan’s shares is the fund's first strategic investment in Vietnam.

In early 2023, international media reported that Thailand’s Central Retail Corporation (CRC) has announced its largest overseas investment of ฿50 billion ($1.45 billion) in Vietnam for the 2023-2027 period.

Central Retail Vietnam aimed to double the number of stores to 600 in 57 out of 63 provinces and cities in the country by 2027, with total floor area expected to reach 2 million square meters, the reports said.

Similarly, Aeon Group (Japan) also announced plans to deploy 16 more projects in Vietnam by 2025, including 3-4 projects in Hanoi, launching, at the same time, new retail models.

Rents, occupancy go up

Vietnam's retail revenue growth reached 9.6% in 2023, much lower than 19.8% the previous year, but this was still positive compared to many other countries in the region", said CBRE Vietnam's Thanh.

In 2023, rental prices in prime locations continued to increase thanks to the entry and active expansion of high-end and luxury brands.

In Hanoi, the ground floor rental price in the central area stood at $162 per square meter per month, an increase of 13% compared to the previous year. Newly opened projects outside downtown areas raised the average rentals to more than $30 per square meter per month, an increase of 12% compared to the previous year. Average occupancy in Hanoi as a whole inched up 1% from the previous year to 88%.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the average rent in the central area was around $240 per square meter per month, up 6% compared to the previous year. Scarce supply saw rents in non-central areas increase sharply to $51 per square meter per month, up 28% compared to the previous year. The average occupancy in HCMC rose 2% year-on-year to around 91%.