Vietnam sets 2026 GDP growth target at 10%

The Vietnamese Government has set the targets for economic expansion in 2026 at about 10% and inflation at 4.5%.

Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi mentioned the figures in his presentation on behalf of the Government at a National Assembly Standing Committee session on Wednesday.

Other targets are per capita income of $5,400-5,500, state budget revenue rising by 10%, investment spending down by 5%, and regular expenditures down by 10%.

Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months of the year and 8.23% in Q3, according to official data. The figures were the second-highest levels in 11 years, except for 2023 which saw a strong surge post the pandemic.

The consumer price index (CPI) for the first nine months rose 3.38% year-on-year and 2.61% compared to December 2024.

Key development priorities for 2026 include economic restructuring, especially in the credit system, handling bad debts, and promoting the digital and green economy, semiconductor technology, and artificial intelligence (AI).

Deputy Minister Chi also noted that foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction will remain selective. Vietnam will develop an international financial center in both Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, as well as new-generation free trade zones in major cities like Danang and Hai Phong to enhance financial resources and attract investment.

Reviewing the report, Phan Van Mai, Chairman of the National Assembly’s Economic and Financial Committee, said that the main growth drivers - exports, consumption, and investment - are "not really strong".

Exports are losing momentum and rely heavily on the FDI sector and external supply chains. Meanwhile, rising tax and technical barriers, along with green requirements from major markets like the U.S. and EU, are creating additional challenges.

Disbursement of public investment in 2025 remains low, at only about 50% of the plan as of end-September. Domestic consumption lacks breakthrough growth. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue grew an average of 7.5% annually during 2021-2025, significantly lower than in previous periods.

“We need to recognize that the economy still depends heavily on outsourced production and imports, with growth driven mainly by capital and labor,” Mai stressed.

Regarding the gold, bond, and real estate credit markets, the Economic and Financial Committee urged the Government to adopt risk-prevention measures to ensure macroeconomic stability.

Mai also noted that with narrower policy space, especially in monetary policy, maintaining macro stability will be challenging. “Given the current structure of the capital market and interest rates, further monetary easing would be challenging,” he said.

Vice Chairman of the National Assembly Tran Quang Phuong said achieving double-digit growth next year will be difficult amid a “new abnormal” global environment. He warned that Vietnam may face headwinds from global downturn risks, rising tariffs, public debt pressures, and restricted global trade.

He also cautioned that the emergence of a “technology bubble and AI fever” could lead to inefficient resource allocation, posing additional risks to economic stability and sustainable growth.

Business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector continued to improve slightly in September amid a renewed expansion of new orders, according to S&P Global.

Output and purchasing activity also increased, but firms continued to lower their staffing levels. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was unchanged at 50.4 in September, signalling a further slight strengthening in the health of the sector.

Operating conditions have now improved in three consecutive months. Helping to support overall business conditions in September was a renewed increase in new orders following a slight fall in August. That said, the rate of expansion was only marginal.