Vietnam’s economy expands 7.85% in 9 months, industrial sector 8.55%

Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.85% in the first nine months of the year and 8.23% in Q3, the General Statistics Office (GSO) reported on Monday.

The figures were the second-highest levels in 11 years, except for 2023 which saw a strong surge post the pandemic.

The 8.23% GDP growth in Q3 that the GSO reported was slightly higher than the 8.22% that Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang had informed at the regular government meeting on Sunday. The Q2 tally was 7.96%.

The industrial, construction and service sectors continued to account for the largest share of GDP enlargement, serving as key drivers of economic growth.

The service sector expanded 8.49% year-on-year in the nine months, contributing the most to the economic expansion - about 51.6%.

The GSO noted that consumption of goods, services, and tourism rose sharply during the period, especially amid celebrations of major national holidays.

The industrial sector grew 8.55% in the nine-month period, with manufacturing and processing the main growth engine - expanding 9.92%.

The agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector rose 3.83%. This was the fourth-highest growth rate in over a decade, behind only 2011, 2018, and 2021.

The consumer price index (CPI) for the first nine months rose 3.38% year-on-year and 2.61% compared to December 2024.

Other macroeconomic indicators were similarly positive. The total import-export turnover for the first nine months reached $680.66 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year, with exports up 16% and imports up 18.8%. The trade surplus stood at $16.82 billion.

In the nine-month period, more than 231,300 new enterprises were established or resumed operations nationwide, up 26.4%.

On average, over 25,700 businesses entered or re-entered the market each month, while about 19,400 businesses exited, a lower figure than those joining the market.

A GSO survey of manufacturing and processing enterprises in Q3 showed that 40.8% of businesses expect conditions to improve in Q4, 41.7% anticipate stable operations, and 17.5% foresee difficulties.

“The socio-economic situation in Q3 and the first nine months was very positive, with each month performing better than the previous and each quarter better than the previous, despite ongoing global and regional uncertainties,” Nguyen Thi Huong, director of the GSO, told the agency's press briefing on Monday.

Vietnam aims for GDP growth of 8.3-8.5% this year to set the stage for double-digit expansion in the coming years. According to Huong, the economy will continue to face multiple challenges in the final quarter to meet this target.

She emphasized the need for measures to enhance productivity, product quality, exports, and domestic demand, while accelerating public investment disbursement and removing bottlenecks for key projects.

This year’s public investment plan amounts to over VND1,110 trillion or $42.1 billion (including carryover funds from the previous year, additional allocations from higher central budget revenues, and local budget balances).

As of September 30, the disbursement rate had surpassed 51% of the plan. The government aims to fully disburse this amount, as public investment remains a key driver of high growth and macroeconomic stability.

In its September Asian Development Outlook (ADO) released on September 30, the bank revised Vietnam’s economic growth forecast, raising it to 6.7% in 2025 and adjusting to 6% in 2026. Inflation projections are slightly below the previous estimates published in April this year.

However, despite mounting headwinds from reciprocal tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions globally and regionally, Vietnam’s economy has performed well in the first quarters of the year, it wrote.

The World Bank Group in its country economic update issued on September 8 stated that Vietnam's monetary policy has remained accommodative, as SBV interventions contained foreign exchange pressures and increased credit growth.

Business conditions in the Vietnamese manufacturing sector continued to improve slightly in September amid a renewed expansion of new orders, according to S&P Global.

Output and purchasing activity also increased, but firms continued to lower their staffing levels. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was unchanged at 50.4 in September, signalling a further slight strengthening in the health of the sector.

Operating conditions have now improved in three consecutive months. Helping to support overall business conditions in September was a renewed increase in new orders following a slight fall in August. That said, the rate of expansion was only marginal.