Vietnam stock market outlook brightens for H2/2024: SSI Research

Vietnam’s stock market outlook could brighten in the last two weeks of September in particular and H2/2024 in general as a result of increased capital inflows from domestic investors, say analysts with SSI Research.

They say that over the past 14 years, September has typically seen minimal volatility in the stock market, with the exceptions of September 2022 and 2023, which were significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations.

The average growth of Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index in the fourth quarter of each year has remained positive at 3.3%, they note.

The index’s forward P/E ratio stood at 11.6x on September 6, making it more attractive compared to some Southeast Asian peers. Given the possibility that emerging markets could benefit from a potential rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), attractive valuations could boost capital inflows into the market.

Moreover, the market is expected to receive strong inflows of cash from domestic investors, as the nation’s central bank, the State Bank of Vietnam, is likely to ease its monetary policy after the Fed lowers interest rates, leading to a softening of the U.S. dollar.

While some volatility may persist due to U.S. economic indicators, SSI Research analysts believe that market performance and liquidity could improve in the last two weeks of September on domestic factors.

In another forecast, ACB Securities said VN-Index was likely to move in the 1,150-1,300 points range in the second half of this year if the U.S. Fed starts interest rate cuts in September.

However, it cautioned that maintaining the 1,150-1,160 points threshold will be challenging for the VN-Index after an uptrend it enjoyed since October 2023 was disrupted by deep corrections in late July and early August amid global selloffs.

The VN-Index closed down 1% at 1,255.23 points on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a report by Hanoi-based Vietcombank Securities Co. has said that the local stock market remained attractive to domestic investors as recent interest rate hikes were not appealing enough for bank deposits to become a competitive investment channel.

If interest rates increase moderately and remain low amid insignificant credit growth, the VN-Index may head to the 1,300 threshold and even conquer a 1,350-1,380 peak, VCBS analysts said.

South Korea-invested Yuanta Securities Vietnam has also said that the VN-Index could surpass 1,300 points later this year thanks to a range of catalysts. However, the firm’s analysts have also called for caution over potential risks and volatility.

MB Securities JSC (MBS) has forecast that the VN-Index could hit 1,350-1,380 points in late 2024 if corporate earnings rise by 20%, and the forward P/E ratio is 12x-12.5x in the 2024 fiscal year. MBS has also anticipated that large-cap stocks will likely be more profitable than other groups in the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years.