Vietnam stock market set for year-end recovery: expert

Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index can return to the 1,300-point territory by year-end, says Le Duc Khanh, director of analysis at leading broker VPS Securities.

He was speaking on the sidelines of a recent conference titled “Vietnam stock market: Status upgrade and transparency in listed firms' information disclosure” hosted by The Investor.

Khanh said that since the beginning of 2023, the Vietnamese stock market had recovered quite well to 1,250 points. However, since this was a strong resistance area, the VN-Index experienced a sharp fall after hitting it.

Exchange rate fluctuations and the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) issuance of T-bills to withdraw cash flow from banks affected investor sentiment, leading to their massive selloffs to take profit, causing the market to plunge to the area of 1,100-1,105 points.

Then the exchange rate was brought under control and the SBV did not withdraw as much money as previously expected, so the market has showed signs of bottoming around 1,105-1,110 points.

“In the coming time, investors who target corporate value and growth need to heed specific stocks and keep a close watch on the growth potential of businesses to buy and hold with a longer-term vision,” Khanh told The Investor.

However, short-term investors should pay more attention to evaluating market developments and fluctuations, he said, adding although the market is gradually recovering, they still need to choose stocks in industries with good revenue growth potential this year.

Surfers can choose stocks with high liquidity and those of leading companies and firms with good information or good dividend payout ratio, he noted.

Therefore, in the short term, investors need to choose the right time to put down money, study stocks carefully and manage their investment portfolio effectively, the broker advised.

In October, when listed companies’ third-quarter business results were announced, the VPS Securities chief analyst forecast that domestic investors will return to the market, thus improving liquidity. At the same time, it is expected that with the exchange rate cooling down and a better outlook for this year, foreign investors will also come back, helping the market stabilize and gain.

“However, every breakthrough or strong increase must wait for next year. This year, we only hope that the market will gradually recover to the peak of 2022. We will persistently follow the market developments and expect that the market recovery can help investors take good returns in the year-end period," Khanh said.

Closing the Friday session, the VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) stood at 1,154.73 points, up 3.12 points from the previous session, with more than 621 million shares changing hands for nearly VND14 trillion ($572.48 million).