Vietnam targets 11.9% GDP growth in H2 to achieve double-digit expansion in 2026

Vietnam's government has set a target of 11.9% economic growth in the second half of 2026 to achieve its goal of expanding GDP by at least 10% for the full year, according to a government resolution issued on Saturday.

The target was outlined in Resolution 168, which updates the country's growth scenario and sets out key policy measures for the remainder of the year while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

On April 24, the National Assembly - the country's legislature - set a 2026-2030 agenda targeting at least 10% average annual GDP growth.

Based on reports from ministries and local governments, Vietnam's economy is currently projected to grow 8.7% in 2026. To raise full-year growth to double digits (10%), the government said GDP must expand 11.9% in H2.

Under the updated scenario, several sectors are expected to post particularly strong growth, including electricity production at 16.9%, construction at 17.6%, and accommodation and food services at 17.3%.

Among Vietnam's major economic centers, Ho Chi Minh City is targeting 10.2% growth in gross regional domestic product (GRDP) in H2, while Hanoi aims for 11%, compared with estimated first-half growth of 8.47% and 7.87%, respectively.

Other localities targeting robust growth include Hai Phong and Quang Ninh at 13%, Bac Ninh at 12.5%, Hung Yen at 11.5%, and Danang at 11.22%.

The government acknowledged that achieving growth of at least 10% this year will be challenging amid global uncertainties, particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have affected Vietnam's economy during H1.

To support the growth target, the government asked ministries and provincial authorities to accelerate implementation of development plans and adopt more proactive approaches to economic management.

The Ministry of Finance was instructed to pursue an appropriately expansionary fiscal policy, including submitting proposals to adjust fuel and jet fuel taxes in line with global price movements.

The ministry will also prepare plans for allocating additional central government budget revenue, medium-term public investment capital for 2026-2030, and funding for the increase in the statutory base salary from July 1.

The government also instructed ministries and local authorities to fully disburse this year's public investment budget, requiring detailed weekly, monthly and quarterly disbursement schedules to improve implementation and allow for early intervention if delays arise.

The State Bank of Vietnam was directed to maintain a flexible monetary policy, stabilize interest rates, contain inflation, and improve credit quality by directing lending towards manufacturing, priority sectors and key economic development projects.

The government also called for measures to promote the healthy development of the property market, instructing major localities including Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, Hai Phong, Danang, Dong Nai, Quang Ninh, Bac Ninh, Hung Yen and Ninh Binh to assess demand for rental housing across market segments to support future urban planning and resource allocation.

Vietnam’s economic growth slowed to 7.83% year-on-year in Q1/2026 from 8.46% in Q4/2025. Growth was supported by manufacturing, construction and services, underpinned by strong export demand (19.1% year-on-year) and realized FDI inflows (up 9.1% year-on-year to $5.41 billion), as firms continued diversifying supply chains amid changing global trade rules.

The government has directed a study on increasing the proportion of State Treasury deposits held at banks to boost system liquidity.

The Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of Vietnam have been instructed to further examine increasing the share of State Treasury term deposits at commercial banks.

This move aims to inject liquidity into the system, thereby supporting the goal of achieving economic growth of 10% or higher in 2026, in accordance with the newly issued Resolution 168.

Temporarily idle State Treasury funds are prioritized for providing advances to the central and local budgets. Any remaining funds are to be used for government bond repurchase transactions or term deposits at commercial banks.

Under Resolution 168, the government authorizes the Ministry of Finance to proactively determine the limit for placing temporarily idle state treasury funds in term deposits at commercial banks. If necessary, this limit may exceed 50% of the total temporarily idle funds.