Vietnam targets 15% credit growth in 2026, below last year’s 19% actual expansion

Vietnam’s central bank targets credit growth of around 15% this year, lower than both its target of 16% and the actual expansion of 19.1% recorded last year.

In a new statement, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) added that the credit growth orientation could be adjusted to suit actual conditions, with a focus on inflation control, macroeconomic stability and support for economic growth.

Last year, the central bank had set a target of 16%, but actual growth reached 19.1%, bringing outstanding loans to VND18,580 trillion ($707.14 billion). Credit growth outpaced deposit mobilization, at times putting significant pressure on system liquidity, particularly ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday (starting February 14, 2026).

At a press briefing on December 29, 2025, Pham Chi Quang, head of the SBV’s Monetary Policy Department, said credit growth in 2025 was the highest in many years.

“This is a very high growth rate. The SBV has repeatedly reported this to higher authorities,” Quang said, adding that Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio has climbed to 146%, the highest among lower-middle-income countries.

In 2024, the credit growth was 15.08 %, government data shows.

Analysts at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) forecast that credit growth in 2026 will be at 15-16%, equivalent to the initial target for 2025.

"The demand for investment in key infrastructure projects is the driving force behind credit growth across the entire system. Consequently, state-owned banks are predicted to experience more robust credit growth in 2026," they wrote.

Analysts at another broker, Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities, said credit growth is expected to slow in 2026 despite a GDP growth target of over 10%.

"First, credit expansion last year was at a historic high. Second, recent comments from the SBV suggest that the credit quota allocation mechanism will be gradually phased out, reflecting a cautious policy stance. Third, concerns over inefficient capital use have partly shaped monetary policy, underscoring the need to improve credit quality to support more sustainable growth drivers rather than relying solely on monetary easing," the broker wrote.

“Credit growth is expected to continue at a moderate pace, with the focus shifting from asset investment to production and business activities, in line with sustainable growth criteria,” the analysts added.