Vietnamese dong likely to weaken further: UOB
The Vietnamese dong (VND) is likely to weaken further to 25,800 per U.S. dollar in Q2/2025 and 26,000 in Q3, according to Singaporean bank UOB's updated forecasts released on Wednesday.
The figures for Q4/2025 and Q1/2026 are 25,800 and 25,600, respectively.

A clerk counts U.S. dollar banknotes. Photo courtesy of Thanh Nien (Young People) newspaper.
The VND weakened to a record low of about 25,600/USD in early March after the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), the country's central bank, raised its USD sale prices to banks to 25,698/USD from 25,450 /USD, the first increase since last October.
"From here, the path of resistance is still biased towards further VND weakness due to China growth and tariff uncertainties. There is a risk of US imposing tariffs on Vietnam, owning to the latter’s sizable and growing trade surplus with the U.S.," UOB noted.
Potential tailwinds to offset VND depreciation pressures include strong domestic growth outlook and the SBV’s pledge to ensure a “stable exchange rate,” the bank added.
The State Bank of Vietnam set the daily reference exchange rate for the U.S. dollar at 24,758 VND/USD on Thursday, unchanged from the previous day.
With the current trading band of +/- 5%, the ceiling rate applicable for commercial banks during the day is 26,996 VND/USD and the floor rate 23,520 VND/USD.
At 3:15 p.m. Thursday, Vietcombank listed the buying rate at 25,320 VND/USD and the selling rate 25,680 VND/USD, down from the 25,280 and 25,640 in the previous day.
The figures for BIDV on Thursday are 25,320 VND/USD and 25,680 VND/USD, unchanged from the previous day.
Central bank to stay steady for now
UOB said with economic growth staying robust in 2024 and into 2025 and the U.S. Fed poised to hold steady, there is less urgency for the central bank to hurry into any policy easing. At the same time, inflation ticked higher to 3.6% in 2024 from 3.26% in 2023, though still below the 4.5% target.
However, with the prospects of further trade tensions globally under Trump 2.0 and the accompanying U.S. dollar strength an emerging concern, SBV is expected to stay alert to downside pressures on the VND. As such, the best course of action currently is for the key refinancing rate to stay at 4.5%, the bank argued.
Positive momentum to continue but with risks ahead
Vietnam’s real GDP in Q4/2024 surged 7.55% year-on-year, extending the momentum from a revised 7.43% in Q3/2024, and far ahead of market expectations.
With the surprisingly strong performances in three straight quarters, the country's economy expanded 7.09% in 2024 from 5.1% in 2023, beating handily consensus call of 6.7% and official target of 6.5%.
Vietnam’s National Assembly on February 19 raised the country’s 2025 growth target to “at least 8%” and looked to target “double digit” growth from 2026-2030.
While 8% or higher growth rate is possible, exports and manufacturing will not be sufficient to drive such outperformance. Additional capital expenditure, particularly from public investment, will be needed to stretch further as well as to buffer against any potential downturns to trade, UOB remarked.
Vietnam’s capital investment ratio has stayed around 30% of GDP at least over the past decade. In contrast, China’s gross capital formation has stayed consistently above 40% in the same period.
This suggests that Vietnam has been underinvesting relative to its large neighbor and there is certainly a case for higher public investment, particular the government is aiming for double-digit growth rate ahead.
"Taking into account the above factors, we stay cautiously positive for Vietnam’s outlook. We maintain our call for Vietnam’s full year growth forecast at 7% in 2025, assuming Q1/2025 GDP growth of 7.1%. For 2026, we anticipate the expansion pace to step up to 7.4%, benefitting from the government’s efficiency drive," the bank added.
S&P Global in a note released on February 25 predicted that Vietnam’s economy can reach 6-7% annually for the next decade and beyond. It attributed the country's strong growth to its significant FDI attraction and an attractive labor force.
Tim Leelahaphan, senior economist, Vietnam and Thailand, Standard Chartered Bank, on February 20 told the media that Vietnam's economic expansion is expected to reach 6.7% this year (7.5% in H1 and 6.1% in H2), driven by continued business expansion this year and beyond, with foreign investment playing a key role.
The boom in exports in 2024 resulted in its strongest economic performance since 2022. Vietnam’s economy highly open nature (exports value was about 90% of GDP in 2024, the second highest in ASEAN after Singapore’s 174% and ahead of the third-placed Malaysia’s 69%).
This high degree of openness means that Vietnam is vulnerable to disruptions and frictions to international trade especially with US President Trump’s focus on trade imbalances, according to UOB.
It should be noted that US trade deficit with Vietnam has nearly quadrupled from 2016, to $124 billion in 2024. Overall, US trade deficit with ASEAN has nearly tripled to $228 billion in the same period as global trade flows and supply chain shifts accelerated in response to trade restrictions implemented in Trump 1.0 era, the bank added.
- Read More
Vietnam's logistics heavyweight Gemadept plans over $38 mln buyback if shares plunge
Gemadept, Vietnam's leading port and logistics company, listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange as GMD, plans to buy back 21 million shares, equivalent to 5% of its outstanding shares.
Companies - Thu, June 5, 2025 | 3:32 pm GMT+7
Vietnam, US to hold third round of reciprocal trade pact talks in first half of June
The third technical round of negotiations for a reciprocal trade agreement between Vietnam and the U.S. is expected to take place in the first half of June, as agreed by their trade ministers on Wednesday.
Economy - Thu, June 5, 2025 | 3:22 pm GMT+7
Housing developer Vinhomes, consortium partners win bid for $10 bln urban area project in central Vietnam
Vinhomes, the housing development arm of Vietnam’s conglomerate Vingroup (HoSE: VIC), and its consortium partners have won the bid to develop a VND260.3 trillion ($9.97 billion) urban area project in the south-central province of Khanh Hoa.
Real Estate - Thu, June 5, 2025 | 12:15 pm GMT+7
Agriculture ministry proposes police probe into allegations C.P. Vietnam sold 'diseased pork'
The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment on Wednesday asked the Ministry of Public Security to investigate social media allegations that C.P. Vietnam, a subsidiary of Thailand’s food giant Charoen Pokphand Foods Public Company Limited (CPF), sold “diseased pork.”
Companies - Thu, June 5, 2025 | 8:32 am GMT+7
Vietnam a strategic manufacturing hub in Asia amid global supply chain reshuffle: exec
Vietnam has emerged as a strategic manufacturing hub in Asia amid the substantial restructuring of global supply chains, said Dhamcharee Varaporn, managing director of RX Tradex Thailand & Vietnam, a leading exhibition organizer.
Companies - Thu, June 5, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Vietnam's major developer Tan Hoang Minh wants to make Da Lat 'Asia’s most livable town'
Do Anh Dung, chairman of Tan Hoang Minh, on Tuesday proposed that authorities of Lam Dong province support the property developer in planning a 4,320-hectare smart urban area project in the resort town of Da Lat.
Real Estate - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 10:36 pm GMT+7
Vietnam’s economic landscape 'positive' amid global headwinds: Prime Minister
Vietnam’s socio-economic situation has been trending positively, with stable macroeconomic conditions, inflation under control, and major economic balances well maintained, says Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
Economy - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 5:23 pm GMT+7
Unleashing the quantum power in banking
While quantum computing remains in its early stages, its potential to reshape the financial landscape is undeniable. Institutions that act now, by investing in research, forming strategic partnerships, and deploying pilot use cases, will be at the forefront of this transformation, writes Phillip Wright, COO at HSBC Vietnam.
Consulting - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 3:59 pm GMT+7
How Jardine Matheson expands footprint in Vietnam
From a quiet financial investment in 2008, Jardine Matheson, a diversified, Asia-focused investment company based in Bermuda, has steadily expanded its influence in Vietnam, one of Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing economies.
Companies - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 2:57 pm GMT+7
Vietnam, Japan see 'strong collaboration prospects in developing green, eco-friendly products'
Vietnam and Japan have vast potential for cooperation in the development of green and environmentally friendly products, said general secretary of the ASEAN-Japan Center (AJC) Kunihiko Hirabayashi.
Economy - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 12:16 pm GMT+7
Quynh Lap LNG-fired power project in central Vietnam seeks in-principle approval
The $2.15 billion Quynh Lap LNG-fired power project, located in Nghe An province, is drawing significant interest from both international and domestic investors.
Energy - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 9:28 am GMT+7
Indonesia's coal exports dip on weak demand
Indonesia's coal exports dropped 6.43% to 160 million tons during January-April, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.
Southeast Asia - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 8:48 am GMT+7
Vietnam's benchmark VN-Index may reach 1,500 points: analyst
The current valuation of the Vietnamese stock market is quite attractive, and the VN-Index may return to its historical peak of 1,500 points by the end of this year, says Phan Dung Khanh, director of investment advisory at Maybank Investment Bank.
Finance - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 8:38 am GMT+7
Vietnam's agro-forestry-fishery export tops $28 billion in 5 months
Vietnam shipped $6.28 billion worth of agro-forestry-fishery products abroad in May, propelling the cumulative total for the first five months of the year to $28.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and 15.1%, respectively.
Companies - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 8:08 am GMT+7
Brewing change: Carlsberg Vietnam walks the talk on World Environment Day
On a bright morning in Phuoc Tinh commune, Long Dat district, Ba Ria-Vung Tau province, about 200 volunteers from Carlsberg Vietnam, including employees, senior leaders, and their families, rolled up their sleeves for a meaningful coastal clean-up.
Companies - Wed, June 4, 2025 | 8:00 am GMT+7
Vietnam plans to spend over $2 bln on US agri imports
Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is expected to sign MoUs to purchase over $2 billion worth of U.S. agricultural, forestry, and fishery products.
Economy - Tue, June 3, 2025 | 10:01 pm GMT+7