Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index expected to surpass historical highs after correction: expert

The VN-Index, representing the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), will establish a new base and potentially break through its historical peaks after a correction phase, said Tran Hoang Son, director of market strategy at VPBank Securities (VPBankS).

On Monday, the VN-Index once again failed to conquer the 1,500-point mark. During the session, the benchmark index briefly surpassed this resistance level, but strong selling pressure toward the end of the day caused a significant pullback. The index closed down 12.23 points, or 0.82%, at 1,485.05.

VIC of conglomerate Vingroup, VHM of real estate giant Vinhomes, TCB of Techcombank, and VCB of Vietcombank exerted the most negative pressure on the index. On the flip side, VPB of VPBank, HVN of Vietnam Airlines, LPB of LPBank, and HPG of steel giant Hoa Phat managed to stay in positive territory.

Trading volume on the HoSE exceeded 1.45 billion shares, with a total value of VND34.6 trillion ($1.32 billion). The major bourse saw up to 203 declining stocks versus 118 gainers.

Regarding foreign investor activity, data from VNDirect showed a net buying value of VND175.44 billion ($6.7 million).

Foreign investors mainly net bought VPB (VND218.9 billion), VIC (VND76.66 billion), and SSI of Saigon Securities (VND68.49 billion), while net selling VCB (VND147.05 billion), FPT of tech giant FPT Corp. (VND142.51 billion), and VIX of VIX Securities (VND86.1 billion).

According to Son, after five consecutive weeks of gains and nearing the 1,500-point resistance zone, the VN-Index is now close to the historical resistance range from 2021-2022.

“This is an old peak, combined with strong resistance, so a correction or market shakeout at this level is normal and technically expected. The Monday session showed signs of profit-taking volatility,” he explained.

He noted that despite the main index decline, several sectors still maintained moderate growth, with some divergence influenced by Q2 earnings season. Sectors or stocks with positive financial results, particularly pennies and mid-caps, are likely to see strong gains.

“In the next phase, large-cap stocks like VIC may pause or correct before rebounding. The VN-Index will likely experience continued volatility with alternating green and red sessions,” he forecast.

Son emphasized that market momentum remains strong, with the index still trading above the 5-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20). The current support zone lies between 1,450 and 1,480 points.

In an optimistic scenario, the VN-Index is forecast to break through the 1,511-1,536 range before facing a correction. In a more conservative scenario, the index may fail to break above 1,511 and instead retreat to the 1,410-1,430 range, though the movement would be gradual, with mixed sessions.

Son remained confident that after this consolidation, the VN-Index will build a new base and eventually break past its historical highs, heading toward a higher trading range.

“I still maintain a forecast for a ±5% fluctuation in the VN-Index. This is a phase of market divergence as blue-chips pause and the market enters a period of shakeout over the next 2 to 2.5 weeks.

“Given this outlook, investors should consider partially taking profits on well-performing stocks and restructuring their portfolios in preparation for the next wave of growth,” the VPBankS expert advised.