Vietnam’s credit in 2026: When capital gets selective

2026 is expected to be a year of sharp differentiation in Vietnam's banking system, as banks with high capital adequacy ratios (CAR) and diversified customer bases are likely to be granted larger credit quotas, while others face tighter constraints.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set a credit growth target of around 15% for 2026, significantly lower than the nearly 20% recorded in 2025. With the credit-to-GDP ratio already at an elevated level, this is widely seen as a cautious move aimed at reducing the accumulation of risks in the financial system, particularly risks of asset price inflation.

According to financial data provider FiinGroup, by the end of 2025, Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio had reached approximately 146%, approaching the safety threshold for an emerging economy. If credit growth were to continue at a pace of 18-20% per year, this ratio could exceed 200% after 2030, posing substantial systemic risks.

Commenting on this figure, Dr. Can Van Luc, chief economist of BIDV bank, said that the 146% level is a warning bell for systemic risks. Vietnam cannot indefinitely sustain a growth model that relies heavily on bank credit, especially when the system’s CAR is under pressure. A 15% credit growth target, he noted, is a necessary adjustment to safeguard the economy’s resilience.

In early 2026, many large banks announced that they have exhausted their credit quotas for home loans, or are offering loans only at high interest rates, he said.

According to Luc, actual lending rates in the market have risen by 2-3 percentage points compared to the end of 2025. While medium- and long-term real estate loan rates stood at around 6.5-7.5% per year at the end of last year (applicable for the first 12-18 months), current rates for the first 12-16 months have climbed to around 8.5-9.5%, and even 13-14% at some banks. This reflects mounting liquidity pressure in medium- and long-term funding, particularly in the real estate sector.

According to economist Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, one explanation for this phenomenon lies in the system-wide credit growth cap. With a 15% annual target, the monthly credit growth headroom is relatively limited when averaged out. Meanwhile, outstanding real estate loans from previous years remain large and continue to grow at a high pace, rapidly squeezing the room for new lending and effectively tightening credit for real estate.

Another important factor influencing interest rates is the velocity of money. As Nghia pointed out, this indicator currently stands at just 0.63-0.65, a low level that has persisted for many years.

A further notable cause is that funds raised from government bond issuance and public investment have not been disbursed as efficiently as expected, instead flowing back into the banking system. At present, the State Treasury is depositing around VND1,200 trillion ($46.2 billion) with banks, rather than injecting this capital into the real economy.

This creates a paradox: money supply increases and nominal credit expands, yet capital does not flow into production and business activities. As a result, credit efficiency declines and interest rate structures become distorted.

With a GDP growth target of 10%, Nghia estimates that total social investment would need to rise from about 32% of GDP currently to nearly 38%, implying a sharp increase in real capital demand.

However, non-bank funding channels such as foreign direct investment (FDI), the stock market, and the corporate bond market remain insufficiently developed to share this burden. In this context, bank credit continues to serve as the primary funding channel, further intensifying upward pressure on interest rates.

A year of “separating the wheat from the chaff”

The early exhaustion of credit quotas at commercial banks in 2026 is partly attributed to a structural mismatch highlighted by FiinGroup: around 90% of bank deposits are short-term, while demand for medium- and long-term capital, particularly for real estate and infrastructure, accounts for a large share.

When the ratio of short-term funds used for medium- and long-term lending approaches the regulatory ceiling, the room for new disbursement narrows immediately.

A report from BIDV Securities (BSC) highlights a concerning indicator: the velocity of money (V) currently stands at just 0.63 times. Liquidity has been injected into the system but is not flowing into production, instead becoming “trapped” in asset channels such as gold and real estate.

A new challenge for credit management has emerged with the rise of crypto assets. BSC cited data from U.S. blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis showing that the value of on-chain transactions in Vietnam has exceeded $200 billion, equivalent to about 45% of GDP.

This massive capital flow, combined with persistently low interbank interest rates (around 0.17%), has created an unprecedented divergence: the USD/VND exchange rate rose by 3.4% in 2025, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell sharply. This forced the SBV to intervene by selling foreign currency forward contracts while simultaneously tightening credit quotas to maintain macroeconomic stability.

Le Anh Tuan, CEO of Dragon Capital, observed that money is accumulating in speculative channels. When money circulation slows, the economy can slip into a state of “asset price inflation” even while consumer price inflation (CPI) remains under control. This compels regulators to be more cautious in granting new credit room.

With a GDP growth target of 10% but credit growth capped at 15%, the gap in long-term capital is widening. According to FiinGroup and other experts, the only viable solution is to diversify funding channels, making 2026 a year of “separating the wheat from the chaff.”

Banks with strong capital adequacy ratios (CAR) and diversified customer bases will be prioritized in credit allocation, while capital flows into high-risk and speculative sectors will be tightly controlled through both quantitative limits and technical barriers.

Vietnam’s central bank targets credit growth of around 15% this year, lower than both its target of 16% and the actual expansion of 19.1% recorded last year.

Outstanding loans in 2025 hit VND18,580 trillion ($707.14 billion). Credit growth outpaced deposit mobilization, at times putting significant pressure on system liquidity, particularly ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday (starting February 14, 2026).