Property credit tightening raises investor fears, experts spot opportunities

VinaCapital analysts say tighter controls on property credit growth in Vietnam, over the long term, help restructure the market, support more reasonable pricing, balance supply and demand, curb speculation, and foster more sustainable development.

In its recent statement, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said it targets credit growth of around 15% for 2026, lower than both its target of 16% and the actual expansion of 19.1% recorded last year.

The central bank has asked lenders to tightly control credit growth in risk-prone sectors, particularly real estate, in 2026, steering capital toward production and business activity, priority sectors and key growth drivers.

Lenders are instructed to rein in 2026 property credit growth at no more than each bank’s overall credit growth rate in 2025.

The announcement immediately rattled investors, especially those in the property sector, with many saying the move could weigh on the real estate market and hinder its growth this year.

However, economists say tighter controls on property lending are a prudent step to rein in overheating and systemic risks. Capital will still flow into the sector, but on a more selective basis, favoring projects with strong liquidity, efficiency and genuine end-user demand, helping the market develop in a more stable and sustainable manner.

Nguyen Hoai Thu, CFA, deputy CEO of VinaCapital, said the central bank’s move was positive, even if it may have come as a surprise to investors. “It shows policymakers, particularly the central bank, are focused on asset quality and growth sustainability,” she added.

Echoing that view, Vu Ngoc Linh, head of research at VinaCapital, said the property market would be restructured in a more sustainable way over the long term.

“In the short term, tighter credit controls, particularly on property lending, combined with higher interest rates will weigh on the real estate market. That has also driven a sharp decline in property stocks in recent weeks,” Linh said.

“Over the longer term, however, the policy will help restructure the market, support more reasonable pricing, balance supply and demand, curb speculation, and foster more sustainable development.”

Linh said she expects that the new policies, including Resolution 68 on private economic sector development and Resolution 79 on state economic sector development issued by the Politburo - Vietnam's highest decision-making body, will help listed companies improve operations and drive profit growth.

“We expect earnings growth among listed companies to exceed 18% this year, reflecting a clear improvement in domestic demand and profit margins,” Linh said.

“When Resolution 68 was issued in 2025, we revised up earnings forecasts for several key private companies. Resolution 79 is likely to have a more limited impact as state-owned firms may need more time to adapt, partly due to the scale of their operations.”

Meanwhile, overly tight credit conditions could weigh on the country's 10% GDP growth target for 2026 as set by the government. The central bank set a credit growth cap of 16% at the start of 2025, later raising it to 19% by year-end - a sign that credit policy could be adjusted after the first one or two quarters depending on GDP growth in the first half of a year.

Reinforcing her confidence in earnings growth, Linh said that as the property market showed signs of recovery in 2025, sales at companies also picked up, supporting growth among real estate firms this year.

In addition, some large companies have been able to sustain high profit margins over a long period, yet their valuations remain reasonable.

“Looking at the price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, many sectors are trading below one, while the return on equity (ROE) is very high. That suggests there is room for a re-rating,” Linh said.

She also expects the upside to spread across a broader range of sectors, delivering more balanced growth rather than the sharp divergence seen in 2025, when gains were concentrated in just a few leading industries.

Catalyst for return of foreign capital

On fund flows, Linh said FTSE Russell’s March 2026 market review and the expected official upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market in September 2026 could act as catalysts for foreign capital to return.

The market has also seen many positive signals tied to global index provider MSCI’s upgrade roadmap, which could have an even stronger impact on attracting foreign capital.

Looking back over the past decade, particularly the last two years, foreign investors have been persistent net sellers, withdrawing capital from Vietnam and the broader ASEAN region to reallocate to other markets.

Against this backdrop, signals pointing to a potential upgrade of Vietnam’s stock market are seen as key to reversing international capital flows. At the same time, accelerating the development of an International Financial Center could lift market quality, deepen liquidity, and enhance the economy’s ability to absorb foreign inflows in the period ahead.

Looking across sectors, Thai Quang Trung, VinaCapital’s investment director, said consumer goods companies are set to benefit as capital flows return to the market.

“While the sector has yet to capture broad investor appeal, growth momentum from other industries is expected to gradually spill over and lift consumer stocks, particularly ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday,” Trung said.

“Listed retailers still have room to grow as traditional channels contract and cede ground to modern trade formats. Capital flows may eventually rotate into electronics and home appliance stocks.”

Trung said the insurance sector typically enjoys a double boost in periods of relatively strong economic growth, alongside rising interest rates and higher government bond yields.

At the same time, insurers stand to benefit from Vietnam’s shifting demographics, as an aging population, rising incomes, and higher incidence of critical illnesses lift demand for insurance products, while penetration rates remain relatively low.

“In particular, earnings growth across the sector is running at double digits, on par with banks, making it one of the industries likely to attract capital this year,” Trung said.