State-controlled stocks rally, lift VN-Index to record high

A broad rally in Vietnamese state-controlled stocks including VCB (Vietcombank), BID (BIDV bank), PLX (Petrolimex), BSR (Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical JSC), and GAS (PV Gas) helped push the benchmark VN-Index to a record high on Monday, despite lingering concerns over weakening market breadth and slowing momentum.

The market opened on a subdued note as selling pressure spread across multiple sectors, with the VN-Index hovering around the 1,910-point level during the morning session.

By late morning, bargain hunting helped narrow losses and briefly pushed the benchmark into positive territory. However, the rebound masked broader market weakness as declining stocks still outnumbered gainers across the board.

In the afternoon session, the VN-Index initially edged lower before rebounding strongly. The benchmark at one point climbed to an intraday high of 1,931.92 before closing at a record 1,927.94, up around six points on the day.

Market liquidity also improved compared with recent sessions, with trading value reaching nearly VND26.66 trillion ($1.01 billion), up nearly 16% from the previous session and 11.5% above the one-month average.

The key feature of the session was a sharp rotation of capital flows.

While stocks linked to Vingroup retreated, with VIC (Vingroup) down 1.32%, VHM (Vinhomes) falling 2.53% and VRE (Vincom Retail) losing 2.65%, state-controlled companies attracted strong investor demand.

Shares of major state-owned banks including VCB, BID and CTG (VietinBank) rose between 1.4% and 5.5%, ranking among the top contributors to the VN-Index.

The insurance sector also gained attention as BVH hit its daily ceiling price at VND71,700 ($2.72) per share.

Energy-related stocks including PLX, PVD, PVT, BSR and GAS all climbed more than 4% during the session. Notably, PLX surged 6.99% to VND45,150 ($1.7) per share with nearly 11.5 million shares traded.

The rally in state-controlled stocks came after Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang said he would chair a meeting this Tuesday with ministries, local authorities and leaders of 23 state-owned groups and corporations to review draft criteria for restructuring state capital holdings.

Earlier, Vu Thi Chan Phuong, Chairwoman of the State Securities Commission, emphasized the importance of state-controlled enterprises listed or registered for trading to the country’s stock market.

She said such firms typically have large market capitalizations, operate in key sectors of the economy, and possess strong appeal to both domestic and foreign investors.

According to Phuong, stricter compliance with regulations on public companies, information disclosure, corporate governance, listing and trading registration - alongside efforts to improve free-float ratios and boost liquidity - would play an important role in elevating Vietnam’s stock market.

Analysts warn of weakening momentum

Despite the benchmark reaching new highs, analysts at MB Securities (MBS) warned in a recent report that upward momentum appeared to be slowing.

The brokerage noted that market liquidity remained relatively low while foreign investors continued to post sizable net selling.

According to MBS, the market has entered a period lacking sufficiently strong supportive information, making investment opportunities increasingly selective and fragmented.

The brokerage maintained a cautious view, saying the broader market picture reflected a clear lack of consensus among stock groups, increasing the risk of a technical correction near peak levels.

MBS also pointed to signs of renewed global inflationary pressure, while inflation in many economies remains persistent. Such developments could lead markets to reprice expectations for higher interest rates, potentially affecting investor risk appetite.

The brokerage added that market breadth has weakened noticeably and speculative capital flows continue to narrow. Technical indicators also suggest fading momentum, with fewer than one-third of listed stocks still trading above their 200-day moving averages even as the VN-Index remains near historic highs.