Vietnam’s garment, wooden furniture exports to US likely to slow: official

From now until late 2025, and possibly into the first half of 2026, some Vietnamese exports to the U.S may struggle to sustain the rapid growth seen in the first six months of this year, said Vu Ba Phu, director of the Trade Promotion Agency under the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Phu made the remarks at the launch of VietnamUSA.Arobid.com, an international B2B e-commerce platform, in Ho Chi Minh City on Friday.

He noted that the U.S. remains a market with enormous purchasing power and wide coverage for Vietnamese goods. Recently, U.S. buyers have rushed to import products such as wood, textiles, and food ahead of new reciprocal tariffs. Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. totaled $70.91 billion in the first half of 2025, up 28.6% year-over-year.

“Exports to the U.S. have surged, leading to high inventories. We have to recognize that in the last half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, shipments of wooden furniture, textiles, and similar goods to the U.S. will likely slow,” Phu said.

He added that the U.S. imposition of a 20% reciprocal tax from August 1 will continue to pressure export costs. “The challenge now is how to optimize benefits and reduce risks,” he said.

Seeking new trade models

Given the market headwinds, Phu stressed the need for a new trading model - one that is transparent, efficient, and less reliant on traditional distribution networks, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises.

He said the VietnamUSA.Arobid.com platform combines online exhibitions with trade connection features, enabling businesses to connect with U.S. partners 24/7 and directly access supply chains.

This, he argued, will help Vietnamese firms not only sell products but also upgrade capabilities, meet international standards, access capital, build sustainable supply chains, reduce reliance on intermediaries, and improve compliance.

Orders losing steam in second half

Tran Nhu Tung, chairman of Thanh Cong Textile-Investment-Trading JSC (TCM), said Vietnam’s textile and garment industry began to see orders decline in the third quarter of 2025 as many customers had “front-loaded” purchases ahead of the U.S. tariff.

In the first half of 2025, Vietnam’s global textile and garment exports reached $21.8 billion, up 13% year-over-year. The U.S. accounted for $17.5 billion of that, up 17%.

“Many partners increased orders before the tariff took effect, which boosted growth in the first half. But in the third quarter, orders are showing signs of slowing due to high inventories, and customers are pausing new purchases while awaiting clearer tax guidance,” said Tung.