How Vietnam industries to be affected by President Trump tariffs

Textile, seafood, wood, and industrial park development might be the sectors hardest hit by the U.S. tariffs announced on April 2, according to Vietnam's leading broker Saigon Securities (SSI).

The U.S. is the largest export market for Vietnam's textile and garment, accounting for about 40% of the country's total export of these items in 2024. The figure was 4-5 times higher than other major export markets, including Japan, the EU, South Korea, and China.

"Therefore, the shift to other markets will take time," the broker said in a release on Tuesday.

In terms of seafood, the U.S. accounted for about 18% of Vietnam's seafood export value in 2024, lower than China (19%), but higher than Japan (15%), the EU (10%), and South Korea (8%).

Tariffs on Vietnamese seafood products are lower than those of China, but the gap is narrowing significantly compared to expectations. The seafood industry may face challenges if global demand stagnates and pressure from Chinese products increases in other export markets.

Increased freight rates and lengthy customs clearance processes may also add pressure to the industry.

Exports of wood to the U.S. made up 55.4% of the country's total in 2024. Wood exports to the U.S. in 2024 reached more than $8.8 billion, up 23.9% year-on-year. Main products included wooden chairs, bedroom furniture, and kitchen furniture.

Regarding industrial parks, the fact that the 46% reciprocal tax rate on imports from Vietnam is higher than that of other FDI-attracting countries in Asia, including Indonesia (32%), India (26%), and the Philippines (17%), may impact the trend of shifting investment from China to Vietnam.

Investors may switch to a wait-and-see mode, thus affecting the demand for industrial land in Vietnam, SSI highlighted.

The broker assesses that the sectors of steel, construction materials, consumer goods, technology, and logistics are likely to be affected at a neutral level.

Specifically, in the logistics sector, import and export enterprises can wait and evaluate upcoming developments because the announced tariff rates may change after negotiations take place.

"This may lead to large inventories at seaports, causing more serious congestion and shortages of transport capacity. Disruptions to global supply chains, coupled with proposed U.S. tariffs on China-linked vessels, could push up freight rates, benefiting shipping companies in the short term.

"However, in the long term, higher tariffs could have a negative impact on U.S. consumer demand and shipping volumes, hurting the industry in the long term," SSI noted.

In terms of technology, IT services are not expected to be directly impacted, as U.S. policy focuses more on goods than services. However, macroeconomic uncertainty could lead to businesses being cautious about overseas IT spending. This has been the case in the U.S. for the past few years, the broker wrote.

In terms of consumer spending, while the consumer sector is not directly impacted by tariffs, a slowdown in labor-intensive export sectors such as textiles and seafood could impact spending, especially in non-essential products (mobile phones & consumer electronics, automobiles, jewelry).

However, the government's ability to introduce measures to promote consumption can help to somewhat mitigate this impact.