Vietnam’s housing market posts 2.5-fold rise in new supply, enters selective recovery in Q1

Vietnam’s real estate market showed signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2026, with supply rebounding strongly and demand remaining resilient, even as high prices and cautious sentiment continued to shape buyer behavior.

According to a report by the Real Estate Brokers (VARS), around 52,000 commercial housing units were put for sale in Q1. Of those, new supply made up 38,000, 2.5 times higher than the same period last year.

Central Vietnam emerged as a bright spot, accounting for 26% of new supply, supported by improving infrastructure, land availability, and urban development strategies. Developers are also expanding into suburban areas and emerging urban zones tied to large-scale integrated developments and transit-oriented development (TOD) models.

Apartments remain the dominant product, making up 67% of new supply. However, the structure of supply is shifting. The share of luxury and ultra-luxury units dropped to about 20%, down 20 percentage points from the previous quarter, while high-end units rose sharply to 53%. Mid-range apartments accounted for 27%, largely concentrated in suburban areas around Ho Chi Minh City.

Despite the recovery in supply, pricing remains elevated. Rising land costs, financing expenses and construction materials continue to put upward pressure on property prices, limiting affordability for a broad segment of buyers.

Notably absent from the market are units priced between VND2 billion and VND3 billion ($75,970-113,900), a segment that traditionally caters to mass-market demand. In this context, social housing has emerged as a key stabilizing force, with more than 7,000 units eligible for sale, helping to fill the affordability gap.

Market liquidity remained relatively stable. Around 24,000 transactions were recorded in the quarter, translating into an absorption rate of 47% on total primary supply and 58% on new supply.

Apartments led market activity, accounting for 69% of total transactions. The segment achieved an absorption rate of about 60% for new supply, equivalent to nearly 15,000 units sold. Projects with competitive pricing and clear legal status recorded particularly strong demand, in some cases achieving near sell-out rates.

Underlying demand continues to be driven primarily by end-users. Flexible financing policies from developers have also supported transactions, even as rising interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainties have made buyers more cautious.

Consumer behavior is undergoing a structural shift, said the report. Buyers are increasingly prioritizing legal transparency, project quality, and long-term usability over short-term price gains. As a result, liquidity is becoming more closely tied to the intrinsic value and practicality of properties rather than pricing alone.

In contrast, segments lacking infrastructure or clear utility, especially land plots in certain areas, continued to see weak activity.

Overall, the market is entering a period of significant restructuring. This phase is being driven not only by internal imbalances but also by broader macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, exchange rates, inflation pressures, and geopolitical uncertainties.

VARS’s institute division identifies six major trends shaping the market. These include a shift toward higher-quality, sustainable supply; spatial reallocation toward infrastructure-linked developments; tighter and more disciplined capital structures; more rational buyer behavior; demand anchored in real housing needs; and increasing market segmentation aligned with sustainable development standards.

While these adjustments are creating short-term pressure, they are laying the groundwork for a more transparent, professional and resilient market.

Looking ahead, Vietnam’s property sector is expected to remain sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. However, the ongoing transformation is likely to create clearer opportunities for well-capitalized developers with strong execution capabilities and long-term strategies.

Over the longer term, the outlook remains underpinned by continued economic growth and sustained infrastructure investment, which together provide a solid foundation for more sustainable expansion of the real estate market.