Vietnam’s stock market status upgrade almost certain: brokerage CEO

Vietnam’s stock market is highly likely to be upgraded to secondary emerging market status, supported by favorable macroeconomic conditions and progress on regulatory reforms, said CEO of ACB Securities Nguyen Duc Hoan.

Hoan noted that the March review by FTSE Russell would be pivotal, adding that the probability of Vietnam being upgraded was “very high, almost certain”.

The upgrade process has entered a decisive phase as FTSE Russell prepares to launch its mid-term review in March 2026, which will assess Vietnam’s readiness to move into the secondary emerging market category.

Speaking at the recent Financial Street talk show on Vietnam Television, Hoan said FTSE Russell has been working closely with the State Securities Commission of Vietnam, the Vietnam Exchange (VNX) and local exchanges to complete post-upgrade technical requirements, indicating the process has moved beyond assessment into implementation preparation.

Investor sentiment and capital inflows

According to Hoan, a market status upgrade would have a strong positive impact on investor sentiment. For domestic investors, it would validate years of market reforms and reinforce confidence in Vietnam’s medium- to long-term growth trajectory.

For foreign investors, the upgrade would place Vietnam on the mandatory allocation list of many global funds, particularly emerging market index funds, thereby improving liquidity, governance standards and market valuations.

Against that backdrop, ACBS maintains a constructive outlook for 2026. In its 2026 strategy report, the brokerage forecasts the VN-Index could reach around 2,040 points under its base-case scenario, reflecting expectations of corporate earnings growth, a supportive interest rate environment and momentum from the market status upgrade narrative.

Hoan said that in a more favorable scenario - where foreign inflows accelerate and investor confidence strengthens - the benchmark index could record double-digit gains in 2026.

Foreign capital expected to move early

Hoan said foreign investors were unlikely to wait until the official upgrade takes effect in September to allocate capital, noting that early positioning was already under way ahead of the March review.

Once the upgrade becomes effective in September, foreign inflows are expected to accelerate, including from large active funds and exchange-traded funds preparing for portfolio rebalancing.

The largest wave of capital, particularly from passive funds tracking emerging market benchmarks, is likely to be deployed only after the upgrade decision formally takes effect, typically in late 2026 or early 2027.

Total capital flows linked to the upgrade theme could reach an estimated $3-5 billion over the medium term, Hoan said, adding that inflows would likely be staggered rather than concentrated at a single point in time.

From now until September, the market is expected to go through an accumulation phase, characterized by selective foreign inflows. In 2027, following an official upgrade, foreign capital is expected to become more sustained and larger in scale as Vietnam enters the “mandatory radar” of global investment funds.

Raising standards across the market

As Vietnam approaches the upgrade and post-upgrade phase, Hoan said market participants would need to “level up” to keep pace with development and meet rising investor expectations.

Brokerage firms, asset managers and listed companies must continue to improve governance and transparency in line with international standards, he said. This includes not only regulatory compliance but also risk management, internal controls, financial reporting standards and timely disclosures.

Financial capacity, particularly among securities firms, will also need to be strengthened to handle higher trading volumes and more complex operations.

At the same time, investor services will become a key competitive differentiator. Hoan said investors would increasingly expect not just stable trading platforms, but also deeper services such as personalized investment advice, portfolio management, investment solutions and advanced data analytics, alongside continued upgrades in human capital.