When the Vietnamese stock market 'takes a break'

After two strong correction sessions, the Vietnamese stock market in recent sessions has been in a state of tug-of-war and sideways movement. Some experts argue that such development is necessary for the VN-Index to conquer higher points.

After two months of positive increases and continuously surpassing peaks, VN-Index, which represents the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, entered September with many fluctuations.

The most notable highlight came from the September 5 session when the index surpassed the 1,700 mark.

However, the high pressure of stock supply pushed VN-Index to turn around and closed the session with a deep decrease. Selling pressure continued to the session on Monday, September 8 when the index decreased by 2.55%.

VN-Index ended its two-session losing streak when it recovered in two recent trading days. However, that is only in terms of points, the main development of these two sessions was a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers.

The general scenario is that when VN-Index increases, the supply of shares is always waiting to appear to pull the index down. On the contrary, at the time when VN-Index dips deeply below the reference level, the demand for shares will be strong and pull the index to close with an increase.

VN-Index recovered, but cash flow was diversified. Many investors' accounts were still heavily negative, especially those who bought in the sessions of September 4 and 5.

Truong Hien Phuong, a senior director at KIS Vietnam Securities JSC, commented that cash flow tended to take profits when VN-Index surpassed the 1,700 mark, because many stocks brought good profit margins after a short period of time. This put pressure and caused the index to decrease.

According to this expert, the positive point was that in the declines of VN-Index, there were still many "healthy" stocks that went against the market (HPG, NKG, BSR ...). In addition, the index decreased but did not fall into a state of panic selling; many stocks did not hit the floor with no buyers.

“The current fluctuations of the index are normal before accumulation creates a foundation for a new growth wave cycle,” said Phuong.

Tran Hoang Son, director of market strategy at VPBank Securities (VPBankS), said that before the stock market correction, the RSI (relative strength Index) had shown a negative divergence signal for two months.

In addition, there were a number of other signals that reinforced a market correction such as liquidity and margin reduction pressure of securities companies.

Son showed caution when assessing the market scenario in the coming time. His argument was based on technical distribution signals reflected in liquidity, net selling pressure from foreign investors, and exchange rate.

He also emphasized that given the recent price hikes, many stocks have P/E (price to earning) ratios equal to the five-year average, or the highest in many recent years.

Sharing the same view, SSI Securities analysts believe that market pressure may increase significantly in early October after the index has grown impressively in the last two months.

In a more cautious scenario, a strong correction may occur in the period from September to early October, with an amplitude that may be larger than the corrections since the bottom in April.

Factors that may cause the market to correct are increased exchange rate pressure (VND depreciating by an average of 3% in the period September-October from 2022 to 2024), Q3 business results announcement seasons usually less exciting, and profit-taking pressure after a strong recovery in August (August increased in the past four years, averaging +2.6%).

Notably, SSI Research statistics show that the market often experiences corrections of over 7% in an uptrend, especially after a rapid increase of over 20% within three months. Currently, VN-Index has increased by 50% in the past three months and has not recorded any decline of over 4.5% since the bottom in April.

However, SSI Research believes that the correction will open up opportunities for long-term stock accumulation. This prospect is reinforced by expectations of double-digit GDP growth in the next 5-10 years, driven by comprehensive institutional reforms and orientation to promote private economic sector development; prospects of solid profit growth of over 14%/year in the period of 2025-2026; prospects of market upgrade to attract more international capital flows; and supportive monetary policy, maintaining a favorable interest rate environment for the stock market.

From their perspective, Mirae Asset Securities experts said they remain optimistic about market prospects in September and the rest of 2025.

“VN-Index still has room to increase towards a new historical peak at 1,800-2,000 points if the upward momentum is maintained as it is at the present time and the exchange rate pressure will remain within the threshold allowed by the State Bank of Vietnam,” said a Mirae Asset Securities report.

Therefore, Mirae Asset Securities has proposed two scenarios for the performance of VN-Index in the remaining months of 2025.

In the base scenario, the index is expected to establish a short-term support zone at 1,650 points and continue to increase to 1,800 points. In the less optimistic scenario, a medium-term support zone will be formed at 1,550 points.